528
FXCA20 KWBC 301929
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 30 MAY 2023 AT 1900 UTC: A RELATIVE ACTIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SURFACE TROUGHS AND EASTERLY WAVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT TRENDING TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS A LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...JUST WEST
OF COSTA RICA. FOR THE MOST PART...THE WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT...AND THERE IS NO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TODAY.
HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND PERHAPS INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA ON THURSDAY. ACROSS THE MID LEVELS...THERE IS A
THROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ITS AXIS WILL BE OVER WESTERN CUBA BY
FRIDAY. THIS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH ITS AXIS.OVER CUBA ON FRIDAY AS WELL. BOTH THE
MID-LEVEL THROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SOME OF THE LOCAL GUIDANCE ALGORITHMS SHOW THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE
EGDI ALGORITHM FAVORS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THAT SAID...THE
GR02T ALGORITHM...WHICH MEASURES THE POTENTIAL SEVERITY AND
HAIL...SHOWS A STRONG INDICATION FOR POTENTIAL HAIL OVER
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY...WITH A MUCH
WEAKER SIGNATURE BEING PRESENTED LATER IN THE WEEK.
OVERALL, IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF MEXICO WILL HAVE A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WHERE A FEW AREAS CAN OBSERVE MAXIMAS
BETWEEN 20-45MM. HOWEVER...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
APPEAR TO BE VERY ACTIVE. PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE MID AND UPPER
TROUGHS THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST SLOWLY. ALSO...THE PRESENCE OF
THE ITCZ AND THE NET OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EACH
DAY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WE CAN EXPECT MAXIMA ACROSS ISOLATED
AREAS THAT COULD BE BETWEEN 20 AND 45MM...WHILE ISOLATED AREAS
COULD HAVE AS MUCH AS 60-80MM OVER PORTIONS OF COSTA
RICA...ECUADOR...AND COLOMBIA. THE GREATER ANTILLES ARE NOT FAR
BEHIND...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL CAUSE INSTABILITY
AND ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BY
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK...CAUSING EVEN MORE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA. EACH DAY...RAINFALL MAXIMA GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 AND 45
MM CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED AREAS OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SQUALLY WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 31/00 31/12 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12 03/00
TW 12N 37W 42W 47W 50W 54W 57W 61W 63W
TW 11N 47W 49W 52W 55W 58W 62W 64W 66W
TW 10N 60W 62W 64W 66W 69W 71W 73W 75W
TW 10N 69W 71W 73W 74W 76W DISS --- ---
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 37W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N.
THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER LAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY IN THE GUIANAS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE AMAPA-BRASIL/FRENCH
GUIANA REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE
IS FORECAST OVER SURINAME/GUYANA BORDER AND MAY EXPECT SIMILAR
AMOUNTS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 47W AND SOUTH OF 11N. THIS WAVE
IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER FRENCH GUIANA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE
IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 60W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE IN RORAIMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WESTWARD OVER WEST VENEZUELA/EAST COLOMBIA WHERE MAXIMA OF
20-45MM ARE FORECAST.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED OVER 69W AND SOUTH OF 10N. ON
TUESDAY...A MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IS FORECAST FOR SOUTH OF THE LAKE
MARACAIBO REGION...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN WEST VENEZUELA AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA IS FORECAST OF MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE REST
OF SOUTHERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE MOVES WEST TO WEST COLOMBIA WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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