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FXCA20 KWBC 011246
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
845 AM EDT THU JUN 01 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUN
01/12UTC: A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF
BERMUDA...AND A LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE
A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA STARTING TODAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...AND WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.2 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...BUT WILL MOSTLY AFFECT THE GREATER ANTILLES WEST OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS IS BECAUSE AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
MOVE EAST WITH EACH PASSING DAY...THEY WILL FLATTEN AND WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. THE 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH 500MB. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED OVER PR/USVI...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS.
THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS SOUTH AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. WHILE NOT AS MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...THE USVI MAY OBSERVE OCCASIONAL BUT
BRIEF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE RAINIEST
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK RATHER RAINY AS WELL FOR THOSE
AREAS. ESSENTIALLY A VERY SIMILAR RAINFALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOUTH AND EASTERN PR RECEIVING
MOST OF THE RAINFALL WHILE THE USVI WILL OBSERVE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
THE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH TO 0.75 INCHES...AS WELL
AS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE USVI IS FORECAST
TO RECEIVE UNDER 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A
RAINIER DAY WITH OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH MAXIMA APPROACHING 0.75 INCHES BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN
OF RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY FOR THE NORTHERN USVI. THE
5-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE WITH A MAXIMA OVER 3
INCHES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...JUST OVER 1
INCH OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND BETWEEN 0.50 AND AN INCH
OF RAIN FOR THE USVI.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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