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FXCA20 KWBC 021240
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 AM EDT FRI JUN 02 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUN
02/12UTC: A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA...A
DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND
THE NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND
KEEP ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS PR/USVI FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.2 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SATURDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING BEING IN
THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE. THE SURFACE LOW NEAR BERMUDA WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
INTO CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE LEEWARDS AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR A
FEW DAYS THEREAFTER...BUT DRIER AIR MAY BE MOVING ON FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES WEST
OF PUERTO RICO...WHICH WILL ALSO HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH
EACH PASSING DAY AS THEY WEAKEN...BUT WILL NOT REACH PR/USVI. EVEN
THOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER PR/USVI...SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR.
THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS SOUTH AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE USVI MAY OBSERVE OCCASIONAL BUT BRIEF SHOWERS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TODAY
AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE RAINIEST DAY...BUT THE MODELS FAVOR
SATURDAY AS HAVING MORE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MODELS UNDERESTIMATED
THE RAINFALL RECENTLY...THEREFORE THE RAINFALL FORECAST HAS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
FOR TODAY. SUNDAY LOOKS RAINY AS WELL FOR THOSE AREAS, BUT NOT
QUITE AS MUCH. ESSENTIALLY A VERY SIMILAR RAINFALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOUTH AND EASTERN PR
RECEIVING MOST OF THE RAINFALL WHILE THE USVI WILL OBSERVE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
THE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ONE INCH. THE USVI IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS TO BE A
RAINIER DAY WITH NEAR 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH MAXIMA APPROACHING 0.75 INCHES. THE 5-DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE WITH A MAXIMA OF 3-4 INCHES FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...JUST UNDER HALF AN
INCH OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND BETWEEN 0.25 AND AN INCH
OF RAIN FOR THE USVI.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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