541
FXCA20 KWBC 021713
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
112 PM EDT FRI JUN 02 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 02 JUN 2023 AT 1630 UTC: THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IS NOW ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ADVISORY...ISSUED AT 1500
UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED AT 26.7N AND
86.3W...ABOUT 345 MI (550 KM) NNW OF WESTERN CUBA. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH (55 KM/H) AND
IS MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH (7 KM/H). THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TODAY...BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY. THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION...COMBINED WITH
THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO STRONG
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACROSS CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND HAITI.
EASTERN CUBA AND EASTERN BAHAMAS APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL RISK WITH MANY AREAS FORECAST TO RECEIVE RAINFALL MAXIMA
OF 50-125MM. ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...MAXIMA OF 20-35MM CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM...ISOLATED AREAS COULD HAVE RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR THE
UPPER END OF THE FORECAST RANGE. OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE A
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES...BUT
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMAS. MUCH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...WHERE THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE
ATLANTIC BASIN AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES
OF THE TROPICS...CROSSING NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY SHY WITH
REGARDS TO SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH
TODAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY. THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA MAY BE THE REASON WHY THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN TODAY AND SATURDAY.
THERE ARE HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...INFLUENCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS...SUCH AS THE WEST COAST OF
ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA...HAVING SOME SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND THEREFORE HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA WHERE MAXIMA OF 35-70MM ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA/RORAIMA-BRASIL. OTHER AREAS IS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...GOING
FROM HAVING MAXIMA IN THE RANGE OF 15-25MM TODAY AND SATURDAY OVER
MOST OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...TO HAVING MAXIMA OF 25-45MM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN BRAZIL...COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...NORTHERN
PERU...AND WEST TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
OVERALL...THE CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO...FROM CHIHUAHUA SOUTH TO
OAXACA INTO GUATEMALA...ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS FORECAST OVER THE WEST CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS BASE OFFSHORE
OAXACA/CHIAPAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE SIERRA MADRE
DEL SUR AND PUSH EASTWARD OVER OAXACA ON SUNDAY...WHERE EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 30-45MM IN OAXACA/CHIAPAS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA. THEREFORE...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIEST DAY WITH
MAXIMA IN THE 15-25MM RANGE...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASING ON SATURDAY
TO A MAXIMA BETWEEN 20 AND 45MM...DURANGO BEING IN THE HIGHER END
OF THAT RANGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...SUGGESTING DAILY RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 15-35MM ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12 06/00
TW 11N 34W 37W 40W 43W 46W 50W 54W 58W
TW 13N 52W 56W 58W 60W 63W 65W 67W 69W
TW 14N 66W 69W 71W 73W 74W 75W 76W 77W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 34W AND SOUTH OF 11N. IT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER AMAPA-BRASIL BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 52W AND SOUTH OF 13N. THE WAVE
IS FORECAST NEAR THE SURINAME/GUYANA BORDER BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE
GUIANAS MAY EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...AND
MAY EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS THROUGH TODAY. ON SATURDAY...THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST OVER EXTREME EAST VENEZUELA...AND WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM OVER EAST VENEZUELA.BY SUNDAY...THE WAVE
IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WHERE GENERAL AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR 20-45MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 66W AND SOUTH OF 14N. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...THE WAVE REACHES WEST CENTRAL VENEZUELA...WHERE EXPECT
20-35MM IN NORTH VENEZUELA AND LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. BY
SATURDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
BORDER...WHERE THE MARACAIBO LAKE REGION AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BY SUNDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER
WEST COLOMBIA WHERE EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN WEST
COLOMBIA.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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