121
FXCA20 KWBC 051913
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 PM EDT MON JUN 05 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 05 JUN 2023 AT 1900 UTC: A PERSISTENT
MID-UPPER TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
ITS BASE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING OVER THE EAST
CARIBBEAN. A MID-UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES MEANDERS OVER THE EAST CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND INCREASE IN
PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. OF NOTE...THE MID-UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS DIVERGENT SIDE OVER THE AREAS OF THE
BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
RESULTING IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.
TODAY...PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA ARE
FORECAST FOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON TUESDAY...JAMAICA
IS FORECAST FOR 20-35MM MAXIMA...WHILE CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ARE FORECAST FOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH-CENTRAL CUBA AND JAMAICA WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITATION...WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FORECAST. ELSEWHERE IN
CUBA...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BAHAMAS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.
IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION WITH A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL FAVOR SOME AREAS AN
INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION. ON MONDAY...PORTIONS OF
VERACRUZ/OAXACA/CHIAPAS...AND NORTHEAST COSTA RICA ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. WHILE IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...GENERALIZED ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM ARE FORECAST. ON TUESDAY...THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
IS FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH SITS
OVER THE AREA AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSISTS WITH VENTILATION. IN
GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR...MAXIMA ARE FORECAST OF
20-45MM...WHILE TO THE WEST IN CHIAPAS/OAXACA/VERACRUZ...MAXIMA OF
20-35MM ARE EXPECTED. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN COSTA RICA.
ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE FORECAST. ON
WEDNESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST OVER PANAMA WHERE AMOUNTS
OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR
NICARAGUA WITH FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW. THE REST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO
ARE FORECAST FOR GENERALIZED ISOLATED MAXIMA BETWEEN 15-35MM.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE
FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE AREA. THE BELOW CHART PROVIDES
PRECIPITATION.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00
TW 14N 35W 39W 42W 45W 48W 52W 55W 57W
TW 13N 53W 55W 59W 63W 65W 67W 70W 73W
TW 15N 65W 70W 71W 73W 76W 79W DISS ---
TW 18N 72W 76W 78W 79W DISS --- --- ---
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 35W AND SOUTH OF 14N. IT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER FRENCH GUIANA/AMAPA-BRASIL ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 53W AND SOUTH OF 13N OVER FRENCH
GUIANA ON MONDAY. THE AREA IS FORECAST FOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER EAST-CENTRAL
VENEZUELA. EAST VENEZUELA/RORAIMA-BRASIL ARE FORECAST FOR MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM...WHILE EAST VENEZUELA MAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-35MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA. CENTRAL
VENEZUELA AND NORTH AMAZONAS-BRASIL ARE FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. WEST VENEZUELA MAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 65W AND SOUTH OF 15N...OVER
WEST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA. ON MONDAY...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL VENEZUELA...WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. IN WEST VENEZUELA AND
EAST COLOMBIA...MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE FORECAST. ON TUESDAY...THE
WAVE IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT GENERALIZED
MAXIMA BETWEEN 20-45MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL PANAMA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 72W AND SOUTH OF 18N. THE WAVE
IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER EAST
PANAMA...WHERE GENERALIZED AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...THE WAVE LOSES DEFINITION AND DISSIPATES BY WEDNESDAY.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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