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FXCA20 KWBC 061233
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
832 AM EDT TUE JUN 06 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUN
06/12UTC: BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE AND SOME SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE DRY AIR AND SAHARAN
DUST WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BOTH IN
AMOUNT OF RAIN AND ALSO COVERAGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HOVER AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AROUND
1.7 INCHES ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL DECREASE TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TODAY ONWARD. THE MID LEVELS ARE STABLE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A TRADE WIND INVERSION
AT AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THIS WOULD PROMOTE LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND IF THERE IS ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT WOULD BE
SHALLOW.
OVERALL...A RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. THERE
WILL BE A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
LIMITED AND SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PR. THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO
RICO...JUST OVER AN INCH OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE USVI.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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