858
FXCA20 KWBC 081241
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
841 AM EDT THU JUN 08 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUN
08/12UTC: BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE AND SOME SAHARAN DUST ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY...WHICH WILL WORK IN LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
GRADUALLY ON FRIDAY...REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING ON SUNDAY AND REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL HOVER AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES TODAY...THEN INCREASE TO 1.8
INCHES..WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN
DECREASE TO 1.3 INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY...BUT THE DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. GENERALLY BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR.
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
OVER PR/USVI THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO AN
EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ON SATURDAY...THEN EASTERLY FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN
THE MID-LEVELS. A TRADE WIND INVERSION AT AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL
IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN THE
INVERSION WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RETURNING ON MONDAY.
OVERALL...A RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
EXPECTED TODAY...BUT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN
GENERAL....BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...WHILE LIMITED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR. THE 5-DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A MAX AMOUNT OF AROUND 2
INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AROUND AN INCH OVER
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.60 INCHES FOR
THE USVI.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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