600
FXCA20 KWBC 081637
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1237 PM EDT THU JUN 08 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 06 JUN 2023 AT 1900 UTC: A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHERE IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING AND
DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE GULF AND NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A MID-UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...AND INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY...WILL HAVE ITS DIVERGENT SIDE OVER
THE PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND JAMAICA FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
APPEARS TO BE RAINIER. TODAY...PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST FOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. JAMAICA
IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM MAXIMA. ON
WEDNESDAY...SOUTH-CENTRAL CUBA AND JAMAICA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION...WITH MAXIMA OF 25-60MM...CUBA BEING ON THE UPPER
END OF THAT RANGE. ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
BAHAMAS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES COULD EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. THURSDAY LOOKS WETTER FOR CENTRAL CUBA AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...WITH FORECAST MAXIMA RANGING BETWEEN 40 AND 80MM...BUT
AS MUCH AS 100MM COULD BE OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.
IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION WITH A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...ONSHORE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL CAUSE
RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. TODAY...THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...AS THE COMBINATION OF A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT AFFECTS THE AREA. ACROSS
GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR...MAXIMA IS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE RANG OF 20-45MM...WHILE CHIAPAS/OAXACA/VERACRUZ OF
MEXICO...RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN COSTA RICA. HOWEVER...PANAMA COULD OBSERVE 30-60MM
OF RAINFALL. ON WEDNESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST OVER
PANAMA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED...BUT COSTA RICA THEN
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE 25-50MM OF RAIN. THE REST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO
ARE FORECAST FOR GENERALIZED ISOLATED MAXIMA BETWEEN 15-35MM.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE
FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE AREA. THE BELOW CHART PROVIDES
PRECIPITATION.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00
TW 12N 48W 51W 54W 58W 61W 64W 67W 70W
TW 14N 67W 69W 71W 73W 75W 77W 80W 82W
TW 18N 78W 80W DISS --- --- --- --- ---
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 48W AND SOUTH OF 12N. IT IS
CURRENTLY OVER OPEN WATERS...BUT WILL ARRIVE AT THE FRENCH
GUIANA/AMAPA-BRASIL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-35MM. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER THE
GUYANA...WHERE EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OVER EAST VENEZUELA...WHERE THE
WAVE WILL BE LOCATED BY FRIDAY EVENING.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 67W AND SOUTH OF 14N. ON
WEDNESAY...THE WAVE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA/EAST
COLOMBIA. FROM CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO NORTH AMAZONAS-BRASIL ARE
FORECAST TO OBSERVE RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...THE
WAVE IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. BY FRIDAY...THE IS FORECAST OVER THE DARIEN REGION. MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PACIFIC BASIN IN COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST FO 20-45MM...WHILE EAST PANAMA MAY
SEE MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 78W AND SOUTH OF 18N. THE WAVE
WILL MOVE WEST TO WESTERN PANAMA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL OVER COSTA RICA WITH MAXIMA OF
25-50MM...WHILE PANAMA WILL SEE LOWER AMOUNTS OF 20-35MM.
THEREAFTER...THE WAVE LOSES DEFINITION AND DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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