157
FXCA20 KWBC 081826
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EDT THU JUN 08 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 08 JUN 2023 AT 1800 UTC: THE MAIN STORY
STILL IS THE RAINFALL EVENT OCCURRING OVER JAMAICA..CUBA...AND THE
BAHAMAS. ALREADY PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA HAVE RECEIVED OVER 100MM
OF RAIN...AND ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE 3-DAY RAINFALL MAXIMA COULD CAUSE RAINFALL TOTALS
THAT SURPASS 200MM. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL 200
TO 300MM ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ISOLATED SECTORS OF CUBA AND BAHAMAS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WILL CAUSE PERSISTENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
WILL ALSO BE AN UPPER-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...WHICH
WILL CAUSE DIVERGENCE ALOFT...SUPPORTING PERSISTENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE A LINE OF DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL STAY NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE EGDI ALGORITHM IS STILL
SUGGESTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE GR02T ALGORITHM (WHICH MEASURES THE
SEVERITY AND POTENTIAL OF HAIL) IS SUGGESTING A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
ACROSS MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...TODAY DEEP MOISTURE AND A
PASSING TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE FROM THE EAST...WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PANAMA....COSTA RICA...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. OTHER PLACES IN
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HAVE RAIN...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH. THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO HAVE RAINFALL MAXIMA UP
TO 15MM. ACROSS GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR...RAINFALL
MAXIMA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 15-25MM...AS WELL AS OVER
CHIAPAS/OAXACA/VERACRUZ OF MEXICO. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
15-20MM GENERALLY BUT MAXIMA BETWEEN 40-80MM. NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BORDER...CAN EXPECT 15-20MM WITH
MAXIMA BETWEEN 30 AND 60MM. ON FRIDAY...COSTA RICA AND WESTERN
PANAMA COULD OBSERVE RAINFALL MAXIMA BETWEEN 25-50MM...WHILE
EASTERN PANAMA IS FORECAST 05-10MM WITH MAXIMA UP TO 25MM. THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO ARE FORECAST
TO OBSERVE GENERALIZED RAIN BETWEEN 05-10MM WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 15MM...WHILE THE REST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HAVE MAXIMA
BETWEEN 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO HAVE 05-10MM OF RAIN WITH MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. FROM HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA...10-15MM WITH MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IS FORECAST. COSTA RICA WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WITH 15-20MM OVERALL WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...AND PANAMA IS
LOOKING AT 05-10MM WITH MAXIMA OF 25MM.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE
FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE AREA. THE BELOW CHART PROVIDES
PRECIPITATION.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00
TW 12N 56W 60W 62W 65W 68W 71W 74W 77W
TW 14N 71W 73W 75W 77W 80W 82W 83W 84W
TW 14N 83W 87W DISS --- --- --- --- ---
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 56W AND SOUTH OF 12N.
TODAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER THE GUYANA...WHERE EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. BY FRIDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST
OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
SATURDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER WEST VENEZUELA AND EAST
COLOMBIA. PORTIONS OF THE MARAICO LAKE REGION INTO EAST COLOMBIA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN WEST
VENEZUELA/EAST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 71W AND SOUTH OF 14N.
TODAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. BY FRIDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER THE
DARIEN REGION AND INTO THE PACIFIC BASIN ON COLOMBIA. MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PACIFIC BASIN IN COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE EJE CAFETERO ARE FORECAST FOR
25-50MM...WHILE EAST PANAMA MAY SEE MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. BY
SATURDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER WEST PANAMA...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. WHILE PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COSTA RICA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 83W AND SOUTH OF 14N.
TODAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST CONTINUE MOVING WEST...CAUSING SOME
MOISTURE AND SHOWER INCREASE TO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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