646
FXUS01 KWBC 090756
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT FRI JUN 09 2023
VALID 12Z FRI JUN 09 2023 - 12Z SUN JUN 11 2023
...HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS MONTANA AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY...
...AIR QUALITY ALERTS DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAIN IN
EFFECT OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC...
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG AN
AXIS OF ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, WHICH IS LIKELY
TO LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. SATURATED SOILS WITHIN THE
AREA COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL HAVE PROMPTED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, WHERE SEVERAL IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST (DRAPING
AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHED FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY). LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND TO
THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY, A DRY LINE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS COMBINED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO SPARK CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CONTAIN
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THEY
PROGRESS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAME
REGION. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AS IT EXTENDS FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS A
CONSOLIDATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY, AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
A LIFTING WARM FRONT BETWEEN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WHILE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT ALLOWING
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MUCH OF
THE LINGERING WILDFIRE SMOKE IN THE EASTERN U.S. TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE.
HOWEVER, LEADING UP TO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND NEAR-SURFACE
WILDFIRE SMOKE ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN FIRES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PLAGUING REGIONS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WITH REDUCED AIR QUALITY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THE FLOW OF SMOKE OVER THE
REGION, BUT SHOULD RELAX AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION ON SATURDAY. POCKETS OF DENSER SMOKE COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE AIR QUALITY AND LEAD TO LOWERING VISIBILITY,
WITH A WIDER REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SMOKE LEADING TO AN
OPAQUE SKY AND ORANGE SUNSETS/SUNRISES. AIR QUALITY ALERTS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FROM MICHIGAN AND INDIANA TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT LOWER 48 INTO THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO
FEATURE ONLY A FEW REGIONS WITH ELEVATED SUMMERTIME HEAT. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY BEFORE THE WARM WEATHER SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY. HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND 90S
ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH UPPER-90S AND LOW 100S FOUND THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
SNELL
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