530
FXCA20 KWBC 091732
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
131 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 09 JUN 2023 AT 1730 UTC: THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA HAVE RECEIVED OVER
300MM OF RAIN...AND ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL CAUSE PERSISTENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL FLATTEN
AS IT MOVES EAST BY SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN UPPER-LEVEL JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL CAUSE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...SUPPORTING THE PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE CAUSE A LINE OF DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COULD INCREASE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY ACROSS CUBA. AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE EGDI
ALGORITHM IS CONSISTENT WITH EVERYTHING ELSE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER CUBA AND BAHAMAS...BUT IT STAYS ELEVATED NEAR
JAMAICA. HOWEVER...THE EGDI INCREASES OVER CUBA ONCE AGAIN MIDDAY
SUNDAY...SUGGESTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GR02T
ALGORITHM (WHICH MEASURES THE SEVERITY AND POTENTIAL OF HAIL) IS
SUGGESTING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
THIS IS DUE TO COLD 500MB TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ACROSS MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...DEEP MOISTURE...SURFACE
TROUGHS AND PASSING TROPICAL WAVES...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT IN THE
LOCAL RAINFALL PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO...BUT PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA WILL BE THE AREAS WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. ACROSS
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...DAILY RAINFALL MAXIMA BETWEEN 30-60MM CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 45MM EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE NEAR
10-15MM/DAY FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH MAXIMA UP TO 35MM. OTHER
PLACES IN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HAVE RAIN...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH.
THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO HAVE RAINFALL MAXIMA
UP TO 15MM EACH DAY UNTIL SUNDAY. ACROSS GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL
SALVADOR...RAINFALL MAXIMA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF
20-35MM TODAY...DECREASING TO 15-25MM ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CHIAPAS/OAXACA/VERACRUZ OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE 05-10MM/DAY
FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH MAXIMA UP TO 15MM.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE
FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE AREA. THE BELOW CHART PROVIDES
PRECIPITATION.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12 13/00
TW 14N 62W 65W 68W 71W 74W 77W 80W 83W
TW 14N 76W 79W 80W 81W 83W 85W 86W 88W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 62W AND SOUTH OF 14N. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER
WEST VENEZUELA AND EAST COLOMBIA. PORTIONS OF THE MARACAIBO LAKE
REGION INTO EAST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE
ELSEWHERE IN WEST VENEZUELA/EAST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-35MM. BY SUNDAY...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER WEST
COLOMBIA AND THE DARIEN REGION. WEST COLOMBIA IS FORECAST MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM...WHILE EAST PANAMA MAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 76W AND SOUTH OF 14N. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER EAST PANAMA. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE WEST WILL AID IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN IN COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. NORTHERN COLOMBIA...THE EJE CAFETERO...AND INTO
PANAMA...ARE FORECAST FOR 25-50MM.. BY SATURDAY...THE WAVE IS
FORECAST OVER WEST PANAMA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. WHILE
PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
ON SUNDAY...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER EAST HONDURAS AND
WEST-CENTRAL NICARAGUA. THE ARE CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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