101
FXCA20 KWBC 121228
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
827 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUN
12/12UTC: THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
THE PRESENCE OF SOME SAHARAN DUST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...AS A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THURSDAY...THEN DECREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO NORMAL BY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INT HE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CAUSE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
EAST...WITH ITS AXIS OVER EASTERN CUBA BY TUESDAY. THE GENERAL
RAINFALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THAT OF BRIEF
SHOWERS AFFECTING EASTERN PR AND THE USVI IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CAUSE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PR WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
SINCE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO MUCH ON TUESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED
FOR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK TRADE WIND INVERSION AT AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL IS FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY...THEN THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. ANOTHER INVERSION IS FORECAST BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY.
THE EGDI ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING MAINLY SHALLOW CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.
OVERALL...THE BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CAUSE THE MOISTURE INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY
CAUSE MORE RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY BEING THE RAINIEST DAYS OF THIS
WEEK. THE RAINFALL PATTERN ITSELF WILL BE TYPICAL...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING EASTERN PR AND THE USVI GENERALLY IN THE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAUSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WEST TO NORTHWESTERN PR. THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A MAX AMOUNT OF AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AROUND 1.75 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO...AND BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES FOR THE USVI.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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