298
FXCA20 KWBC 121809
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 12 JUN 2023 AT 1810 UTC: UNDER AN UPPER
CONVERGENT MJO PATTERN...EXPECT AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENT
MJO...ACCELERATED EASTERLY TRADES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS WILL HIGHLIGHT PRECIPITATION
LOCALLY IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAVES IN THE
TRADES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE TO CONTINUE IN MOST OF MEXICO WHILE
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED IN BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO BASINS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CENTER
NEAR TIERRA CALIENTE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...AND EXTEND NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHWEST USA...TO PROVIDE UPPER DIVERGENCE ON A DAILY
BASIS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL INTO SOUTHWEST
MEXICO...WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON A DAILY
BASIS. EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY NEAR 15MM/DAY. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE PACIFIC
BASIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER FLORIDA/BAHAMAS. THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REFORM THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE WHILE
MOVING LITTLE. YET...AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO
MEANDER NORTHWARD...FAVORING A DECREASING TREND IN ACCUMULATION IN
THE REGION. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WHERE
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM WITH A RISK FOR SQUALLY
CONDITIONS FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS DECREASES 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM BY TUESDAY AND ON.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 23N 57W...AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. THE RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS TNE ENTIRE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEAST CUBA. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE CYCLE...AIDED BY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DUE
TO THE CURRENT ACCELERATION OF THE EASTERLY TRADES. A WEAK TROUGH
IN THE TRADES IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE VI AND PUERTO
RICO ON TUESDAY...AND HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY...TO PROVIDE
MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT TO DIURNAL CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. THIS INCREASES TO
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ON PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY...AND TO
05-10MM/DAY AND SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN HISPANIOLA ALSO ON
WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION AND LIMITED
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES WILL PLAY A STRONG ROLE IN THE
MODULATION OF PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY...AN UPPER TROUGH/TUTT
EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO PANAMA ON TUESDAY...WHILE ENHANCING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE REGION. LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM THIS CONVECTION
WILL YIELD TO A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...WHEN
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER RIDGE.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A BRIEF CAG-TYPE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO
ATTEMPT DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. YET...THE SHORT DURATION AND ILL-DEFINED
NATURE OF THIS EVENT DOES NOT QUALIFY FOR CAG LABELING AND THE
GENERATION OF ASSOCIATED WARNINGS. YET...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. ALSO OF INTEREST...A POTENT SOUTH HEMISPHERE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO SOUTHERN COLOMBIA BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SHEAR LINE DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA INTO ARAUCA/PUERTO AYACUCHO IN THE ORINOQUIA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE HEAVY RAINFALL IN EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ANDES OF ECUADOR
AND COLOMBIA...EXPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WHILE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM ACROSS NORTHERN BRAZIL INTO THE ORINOQUIA OF COLOMBIA AND
WESTERN VENEZUELA BY WEDNESDAY. FOR MORE DETAILS IN RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SEE THE CHART AND TEXT
IN THE FOLLOWING.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12 16/00
TW 10N 42W 46W 50W 54W 58W 62W 65W 68W
TW 15N 61W 63W 67W 70W 72W 75W 77W 80W
EW 13N 69W 72W 75W 79W 82W 84W 86W 89W
TW 14N 77W 79W 82W 85W 88W 91W 94W 98W
TW 18N 84W 85W 88W 91W 95W 99W 104W 108W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 42W AND SOUTH OF 10N AND
CURRENTLY OVER OPEN WATERS. IT WILL MOVE OVER LAND BY TUESDAY
EVENING OVER FRENCH GUIANA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER EAST VENEZUELA.
GRENADA/TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...INTO EAST VENEZUELA...RORAIMA AND
NORTH PARA-BRASIL ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 61W AND SOUTH OF 15N...OVER EAST
VENEZUELA. BY MONDAY EVENING THE WAVE CONTINUES TO AFFECT EAST
VENEZUELA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM
IN RORAIMA BRAZIL. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER WEST
VENEZUELA/EAST COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN AND IS FORECAST OVER WEST-CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 69W AND SOUTH OF 13N. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN WEST VENEZUELA AND 15-30MM IN
COLOMBIA. ON TUESDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL
PANAMA WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. BY WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE IS
FORECAST OVER NICARAGUA/CENTRAL COSTA RICA. ENHANCE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR LARGER ACCUMULATIONS...FORECAST TO REACH
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN EASTERN NICARAGUA. ONSHORE FLOW IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL COSTA RICA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ELSEWHERE
IN COSTA RICA...EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 20-45MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 77W AND SOUTH OF 14N AND IT IS
FORECAST OVER EAST PANAMA BY MONDAY EVENING...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA ON TUESDAY. HONDURAS IS FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF
15MM...WHILE EAST NICARAGUA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WAVE MOVES WEST AND INTO OPEN WATERS OF
THE PACIFIC...LIMITING ITS IMPACT IN CONTINENTAL AREAS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 84W AND SOUTH OF 18N AND IT IS
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BY MONDAY EVENING. MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM IS FORECAST FOR EAST EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS/NORTH
NICARAGUA ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE WAVE IS FORECAST
OVER CENTRAL GUATEMALA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE MOVES QUICKLY OVER OPEN WATERS AND IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page