789
FXUS01 KWBC 130748
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2023
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 13 2023 - 12Z THU JUN 15 2023
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT LOCATED
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ROCKIES, AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TODAY...
...TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT MOST OF TEXAS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING. AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE
NEARBY GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO OVERLAP
AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ARKLATEX REGION AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY, WITH THE THREAT GRADUALLY CONFINING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVER THIS 3-DAY PERIOD A
SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST BETWEEN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP VERY STRONG UPDRAFTS,
WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE
ARKLAMISS AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE SIERRA NEVADA, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ROCKIES, AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TODAY WITHIN WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. A FEW STORMS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SENSITIVE TERRAIN. THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN VERY WET AS OF LATE
AND HAVE SOLS UNABLE TO CONTAIN ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS, WHICH MAY
LOCALLY INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING DEPENDING ON WHERE HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO
SHIFT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. FARTHER EAST, A SLOW-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES, AND OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH THE RECENT EXTENDED DRY SPELL OVER THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY, ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE SEEN
AS BENEFICIAL.
FOR MUCH OF TEXAS, OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR
SEVERAL UNCOMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OUTDOORS. OUTSIDE OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
90S AND LOW 100S OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAT INDICES
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 110S. THE
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS ALSO FORECAST TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY
THURSDAY INTO PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE SUMMER HEAT IS
NOT ATYPICAL THROUGHOUT THE LONE STAR STATE, THE UPCOMING HOT
WEATHER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK A FEW DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO FOLLOW PROPER HEAT
SAFETY TIPS BY STAYING HYDRATED AND LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS DURING
THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS.
SNELL
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