635
FXCA20 KWBC 131912
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 13 JUN 2023 AT 1915 UTC: DRY CONDITIONS ARE
TO CONTINUE IN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO/CARIBBEAN BASINS.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CLUSTER ALONG
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. HIGHER
AMOUNTS...YET ISOLATED...ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN OAXACA AND
CHIAPAS AS DIURNAL BREEZES TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
GENERALLY MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
TO THE EAST...A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES OVER
FLORIDA...CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
AND REFORM THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER...MOIST PLUMES ARE
FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND ACCUMULATIONS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND IN SOUTHEAST CUBA. ON THURSDAY EXPECT
SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS AND IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CUBA.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN...NEAR
24N 58W IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UNDER THE
CURRENT QUASI-STATIONARY WEATHER PATTERN...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...BUT PRIMARILY WILL ENHANCE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
PROCESSES...FAVORING LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS. A TROUGH IN THE TRADES
IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND VI ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHERE IT WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...WHILE EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN
HISPANIOLA.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MODULATED MOSTLY BY WAVES IN THE TRADES. THE WAVES
ARE NOT VERY ORGANIZED AND THEIR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS SUFFERING
FROM THE CURRENT UPPER CONVERGENT MJO PATTERN. YET...A SOLID TRAIN
OF TROPICAL AND AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION.
ALSO OF RELEVANCE...A STRONG SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE INTO SOUTHERN COLOMBIA/ECUADOR-COLOMBIA BORDER BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND INTO EASTERN COLOMBIA ON THURSDAY...WHERE
IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLOMBIA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING IT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...ARAUCA/PUERTO AYACUCHO...AND
BY THURSDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN RORAIMA INTO
CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THE FRONT WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INTERACT WITH THE ANDES. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN EASTERN ECUADOR AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN
COLOMBIA/WESTERN VENEZUELA STIMULATED BY THE SHEAR LINE. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM ALONG THE
EASTERN ANDEAN SLOPES OF COLOMBIA...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOSITURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGE.
THE SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN
CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION CONTAINS POSITIONS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES IN THE TRADES.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00
TW 11N 50W 54W 58W 62W 66W 71W 76W 80W
TW 16N 67W 71W 75W 79W 83W 87W 91W 95W
EW 14N 75W 79W 82W 85W 88W 91W 95W 99W
TW 16N 82W 86W 90W 94W 98W 102W DISS ---
TW 20N 89W 92W 96W 100W 105W 109W EXITS ---
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 50W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N.
THIS WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN FRENCH GUIANA ON
TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN EASTERN
VENEZUEL;A/GUYANA AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ON THURSDAY...IT WILL
FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 67W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N.
TRAILING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN WESTERN
VENEZUELA/EASTERN COLOMBIA ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN CENTRAL PANAMA...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
WESTERN PANAMA. ON THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST HONDURAS AND
EL SALVADOR EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 75W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. ON
TUESDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PANAMA AND EASTERN
COSTA RICA. ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM IN EASTERN HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. ONSHORE FLOW IN COSTA RICA WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON THURSDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
IN GUATEMALA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 91W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. IT
WILL FAVOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN EL
SALVADOR/HONDURAS/GUATEMALA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THIS PERIOD ITS
EFFECTS IN CONTINENTAL REGIONS WILL BE LIMITED.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 89W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. IT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM IN CHIAPAS ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH VERY
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THIS
PERIOD...THE EFFECTS OF THIS WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL IN CONTINENTAL
REGIONS.
GALVEZ/ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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