839
FXCA20 KWBC 141237
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
837 AM EDT WED JUN 14 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUN
14/12UTC: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR 26N/57W...WILL KEEP AN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER
PR/USVI FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
23N/63W WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS IT ALSO FLATTENS. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH TO
THE WEST...OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA THAT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REMAINING WITHIN THE NORMAL
RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THIS REASON...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE NEXT 5
DAYS.
THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. BECAUSE IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE...IT WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED STABILITY AND DRY AIR ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE TRADE WINDS WILL BE ACCELERATED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...AND WILL FAVOR ENHANCED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN
INCREASED CHANCE OR RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...THOUGH IT IS DECREASING.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ACCELERATED TRADE WINDS...EXPECT SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON A DAILY
BASIS...WITH RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST BUT EACH DAY LOWER
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. GA TYPICAL PATTERN OF
SHOWERS IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED EACH DAY BUT
TODAY WOULD BE THE DAY THAT HAS THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS. THE
FORECAST RAINFALL IS UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN PR AND AROUND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR. THE
USVI IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE UNDER 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. THE
FIVE-DAY FORECAST TOTALS INDICATE MAXIMA OF 1-1.75 INCHES IN
EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND TOTALS OF OF 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES ACROSS THE USVI. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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