893
FXCA20 KWBC 141759
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 14 JUN 2023 AT 1800 UTC: UNDER A LARGE
SCALE UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN...EXPECT AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO
REMAIN DISCRETE AND TIED TO ROBUST WEATHER SYSTEMS. A TROPOSPHERIC
KELVIN WAVE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON JUNE 17-18...TO PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO DEEP CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AMERICA.
A QUASI STATIONARY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THIS MEANS THAT LARGE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. OVER MEXICO...A LARGE
CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERS OVER COLIMA/MICHOACAN...AND
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MEXICO
THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
VENTILATION...MOISTURE CONTINUES LIMITED...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IN
THIS UNSEASONABLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN. ANY ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY
CLUSTER TO THE PACIFIC BASINS OF CHIAPAS AND TABASCO.
TO THE EAST...IN THE QUASI-STATIONARY LARGE SCALE PATTERN...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. BUT
MOIST PLUMES ARE MEANDERING NORTHWARD...WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS. AS A MOIST PLUME MOVES FROM HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY
INTO CENTRAL CUBA BY FRIDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DIURNAL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN CUBA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
IN HISPANIOLA AND FAR EASTERN CUBA. ON THURSDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA AND IN
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN JAMAICA. ON FRIDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN CENTRAL CUBA...ENHANCED BY THE UPPER
TROUGH...WHILE IN EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15MM.
WETTER CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AMERICA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SEVERAL WAVES IN THE TRADES. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO STIMULATE CONVECTION AND A LOWERING OF
SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH WEST CARIBBEAN...OFF THE EAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THIS WILL STIMULATE PRECIPITATION AS
WAVES ENTER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN EASTERN NICARAGUA AND CARIBBEAN ISLANDS OF
SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. IN THE PACIFIC BASIN OF COSTA RICA
EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN
SOUTHERN NICARGUA/COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON THURSDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION IN EL SALVADOR...MOST OF
HONDURAS AND MOST OF NICARAGUA/CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. IN CISTA RICA
AND WESTERN PANAMA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON
FRIDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN EASTERN
HONDURAS/EASTERN NICARAGUA AND IN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...A POTENT SOUTH HEMISPHERE COLD FRONT
HAS CROSSED INTO THE NORTH HEMISPHERE AND NOW EXTENDS INTO
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN DISSIPATION WHILE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...COLOMBIAN ORINOQUIA INTO THE VILLAVIVENCIO
REGION. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND BY THURSDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST INTO CENTRAL
VENEZUELA TO THEN DISSIPATE. THE SOUTHEASTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM EAST OF THE ANDES IN ECUADOR AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COLOMBIA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DECREASES TO MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM ON THURSDAY. THE SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA. ON THURSDAY THIS PEAKS AT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-100MM WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT REMNANT
CONVECTION IN MOST OF VENEZUELA...AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOW LEVELS REMAINS HIGH. THIS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AND
THE MAGDALENA MEDIO AND EJE CAFETERO.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00
EW 10N 51W 55W 59W 63W 68W 73W 78W 82W
TW 11N 59W 63W 68W 72W 76W 79W 82W 85W
TW 16N 76W 80W 83W 86W 89W 91W 94W 97W
EW 14N 82W 85W 89W 93W DISS ---- ---- ----
TW 16N 90W 94W 98W 101W DISS ---- ---- ----
TW 20N 97W 101W DISS ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 51W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. IT
WILL FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 50-10MM
IN CENTRAL/EASTERN VENEZUELA AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN NORTHEAST
VENEZUELA. ON FRIDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA/EJE CAFETERO AND MAGDALENA MEDIO.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 50W AND SOUTH OF 11N. ON
WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
AND NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. ON THURSDAY...MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...AND ON FRIDAY...MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN CENTRAL
PANAMA AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN WESTERN PANAMA AND SAN
ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 76W AND SOUTH OF 16N. ON
WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN WESTERN
PANAMA/EASTERN COSTA RICA...AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN SAN
ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA. ON THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
AND A RISK FOR MCS IN EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...NORTHERN/EASTERN
NICARAGUA...AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN COSTA RICA. ON FRIDAY IT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN EL SALVADOR/WESTERN HONDURAS AND
GUATEMALA.
A WEAKENING EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 82W AND SOUTH OF 14N.
IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN EASTERN NICARAGUA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN THE PACIFIC BASIN OF COSTA
RICA...TO THEN EXIT INTO OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC.
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE INITIALIZED ONE AT 90W AND THE OTHER AT
97W. THESE ARE EXERTING LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE CONTINENT AND ARE
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
GALVEZ/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page