950
FXCA20 KWBC 151233
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
833 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUN
15/12UTC: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR 27N/57W...WILL KEEP AN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER
PR/USVI FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR 23N/62W WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS IT ALSO FLATTENS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVES IN...STRENGTHENING TO AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS CURRENTLY NEAR
NORMAL...BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH
THE DAY...AS DRIER AIR WITH POSSIBLY SOME SAHARAN DUST MOVES IN.
BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.
THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WILL WORK TOGETHER TO LIMIT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PR/USVI THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...RANGING BETWEEN 1.6
AND 1.8 INCHES TODAY...BUT DECREASING TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.1 INCHES
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MID
LEVELS IS ALSO BELOW NORMAL...SO THERE IS FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING IN WITH THE TRADES WILL BE
LIMITED...AS WELL AS LIMITING THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
THAT BEING SAID...SOME LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG EASTERN
PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED EACH DAY...THOUGH THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE MAX OF UNDER A HALF AN INCH ON MOST DAYS ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PR...EACH AFTERNOON CAN HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT THE DAILY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MODEST. THE FORECAST
RAINFALL TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR. THE USVI
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY. THE
FIVE-DAY FORECAST TOTALS INDICATE MAXIMA OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES IN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND 1.25 TO 1.50 ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR.
TOTALS OF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS THE USVI. ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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