574
FXCA20 KWBC 151840
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 15 JUN 2023 AT 1840 UTC: THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IN MEXICO...NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
IMPLIES A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MEXICO...AND A TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA/BAHAMAS WITH ITS BASE SOUTH
INTO NORTHEAST HONDURAS. IN MEXICO...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOIST CONVECTION...BUT AN
INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WHEN DIURNAL CONVECTION
TILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM
DURANGO/NORTHERN SINALOA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE DEL SUR. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN COASTAL REGIONS OF CHIAPAS AND OAXACA ON A DAILY BASIS.
TO THE EAST...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONSERVATIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM HISPANIOLA INTO CUBA/BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...AS A
MOIST PLUME PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD FROM HISPANIOLA/TURKS AND
CAICOS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS/WEST CUBA BY
SATURDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF CONVECTION AS THE PLUME INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN CENTRAL
CUBA. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. YET...IN GRAND BAHAMA AND
GREAT ABACO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM AS A
STATIONARY FRONT FORMS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
SEASONALLY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR CENTRAL
AMERICA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE APPROACH OF A TROPOSPHERIC
KELVIN...WHICH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SEVERAL WAVES IN THE
TRADES ARE PROVIDING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...WHICH IS BEING
FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHEN THE WAVES
ENTER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS EAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA...NORTHERN
NICARAGUA INTO EL SALVADOR ON WEDNESDAY. IN COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN WESTERN PANAMA EXPECT
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. ON THURSDAY...ENHANCED TRADE
WIND CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM
SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA INTO EASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS.
EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE PACIFIC BAIN OF COSTA RICA...WHILE
IN PANAMA AND EASTERN COSTA RICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM FROM SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA INTO
EASTERN NICARAGUA...WHILE INLAND ACROSS COSTA RICA AND CENTRAL
NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
IN EL SALVADOR. IN PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE MOST REMARKABLE FEATURE IS A
POTENT FRONT THAT HAS CROSSED INTO THE NORTH HEMISPHERE. THE FRONT
HAS MADE IT INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...WHERE IT WILL START WEAKENING ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
STILL...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHEAR LINE
AFFECTING CENTRAL VENEZUELA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN THE CANAIMA
REGION...DECREASING AFTER. FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SEE THE WAVE SECTION IN THE FOLLOWING.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12 19/00
EW 10N 60W 64W 68W 73W 78W 81W 84W 86W
TW 19N 79W 81W 83W 86W 88W 90W DISS ---
TW 16N 85W 89W 93W 96W 101W 105W 108W 112W
EW 15N 89W DISS
TW 17N 98W DISS
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 60W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ON
THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN NORTHWEST-CENTRAL
VENEZUELA. ON FRIDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA/EJE CAFETERO AND MAGDALENA MEDIO. BY SATURDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN PANAMA AND EASTERN COSTA RICA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 79W AND SOUTH OF 19N. ON
THURSDAY...MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN WEST PANAMA/EAST COSTA RICA. ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL FAVOR 20-45MM MAXIMA FOR WEST NICARAGUA AND THE
GOLFO DE FONSECA REGION. BY SATURDAY THE WAVE WILL FAVOR 20-45MM
MAXIMA IN EL SALVADOR AND 20-35MM MAXIMA IN WEST HONDURAS AND
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 85W AND SOUTH OF 16N. ON
THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM AND A RISK FOR MCS IN EL
SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND NORTHERN/EASTERN NICARAGUA. ON FRIDAY IT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN OAXACA/CHIAPAS. BY
SATURDAY...THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page