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FXCA20 KWBC 161234
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
834 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUN
16/12UTC: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE MOVING TO THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AN
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER PR/USVI FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...GRADUALLY
MOVING NORTH AND CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND VERY SLOWLY MOVE WEST...BUT NO INSTABILITY WILL
REACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE TROUGH. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
CURRENTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORMAL
LEVELS BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY...THEN DECREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PR AND USVI IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN
THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FORECAST FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BUT HAVING FLUCTUATIONS IN MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.1 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...TO
INCREASE BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY TO 1.8 INCHES...THEN BACK DOWN ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE STABLE...DOES NOT
PROVIDE OF A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THAT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL ALSO BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY...SO THERE IS
FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING IN WITH THE
TRADES WILL BE LIMITED...AS WELL AS LIMITING THE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN OR
NORTHWESTERN PR.
HOWEVER...SOME LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG EASTERN PUERTO
RICO IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MAX VALUE OF UNDER A HALF AN INCH ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PR...EACH AFTERNOON CAN HAVE SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
DAILY ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MODEST. THE FORECAST
RAINFALL FOR TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A
HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR AND ALSO ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PR. THE USVI IS EXPECTED TO HAVE UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN. THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST TOTALS INDICATE MAXIMA OF
AROUND 1.50 INCHES IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND NEAR 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR. TOTALS OF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS
THE USVI. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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