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FXCA20 KWBC 161636
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1235 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2023
..NEXT BULLETIN ON TUESDAY JUNE 20
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 16 JUN 2023 AT 1600 UTC: A KELVIN WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO MEXICO ON SATURDAY...AND CROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY...TO THEN PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AND IN AREAS WHERE WEATHER SYSTEMS FAVOR
DEEP CONVECTION.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY MID-UPPER PATTERN NORTH 15N IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IMPLIES A PERSISTENT MID- AND
UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. THE MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR WHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM ON FRIDAY...DECREASING GRADUALLY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ALSO IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
AND EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA...IS
FORECAST TO HOLD AS WELL. SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS PROPAGATING ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO
TRIGGER A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN WHE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN SQUALLY
CONVECTION. THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION
ON A DAILY BASIS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN CUBA...ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOONS...TO PRODUCE MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED ACCELERATION OF THE EASTERLY
TRADES. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO MID-NEXT WEEK. THE NHC
IS MONITORING A ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXITING AFRICA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EVOLUTION AT
THIS POINT IN TIME.
THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS INTO EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND
LIMITING DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA AND EASTERN
NICARAGUA...STIMULATED AS WELL BY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE. YET...AREAS WEST ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WILL
RECEIVE MORE CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS DUE TO ENHANCED WIND
SHEAR...DESCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM
IN EASTERN NICARAGUA/CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS INCREASES TO MAXIMA
OF 40-80MM ON SATURDAY. THE EVENT IS FORECAST TO PEAK ON
SUNDAY...WHEN EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM EXTENDING
INTO EASTERN HONDURAS...INCLUDING A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS...REFER TO THE WAVE SECTION AT THE END OF THE
BULLETIN.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE FRONT HAS ALREADY
DISSIPATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST/CENTRAL COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...THIS HAS
LEFT A STABLE LAYER WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER ITS
NATURAL INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CONTINUES ENHANCED IN VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. UNDER ADDITIONAL STIMULATION OF THE NET AND
WAVES IN THE TRADES...EXPECT MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN VENEZUELA. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA AND THE MAGDALENA MEDIO. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM IN CANAIMA AND EAST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IN MOST OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHEAST
VENEZUALA AND GUYANA/WESTERN SURINAME. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN AREAS TO THE WEST.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12 19/00 19/12 20/00
TW 09N 50W 53W 56W 59W 63W 66W 70W 73W
EW 10N 66W 70W 74W 78W 81W 84W 88W 91W
TW 19N 83W 86W 89W 92W 96W DISS
TW 16N 93W 96W 101W 105W 109W 113W EXITS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 50W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 09N. ON
FRIDAY THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTH FRENCH
GUIANA. ON SATURDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR 20-35MM MAXIMA OVER
GUYANA AND 15-25MM IN SOUTH GUAYANA/NORTH PARA-BRASIL. ON
SUNDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND NORTH
AMAZONAS-BRASIL WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE EAST
VENEZUELA IS FORECAST FOR 20-45MM.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 66W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ON
FRIDAY THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA/EJE CAFETERO AND MAGDALENA MEDIO. BY SATURDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. BY
SUNDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER EAST HONDURAS/EAST NICARAGUA
WHERE ONJAMESSHORE FLOW WILL ASSIST IN HIGHER AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR
50-100MM...WITH RISK OF MCS DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE IN
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 83W AND SOUTH OF 19N. ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL FAVOR 20-45MM MAXIMA FOR WEST NICARAGUA AND
15-25MM FOR THE GOLFO DE FONSECA REGION. BY SATURDAY THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR 20-35MM MAXIMA IN EL SALVADOR. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE WAVE
DISSIPATES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 93W AND SOUTH OF 16N. ON FRIDAY
IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN OAXACA/CHIAPAS. BY
SATURDAY...THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC
AND EXITS BY SUNDAY EVENING.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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