599
FXUS01 KWBC 161924
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2023
VALID 00Z SAT JUN 17 2023 - 00Z MON JUN 19 2023
...HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, GULF/EAST COAST...
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA; CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST...
...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, MIDWEST AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST...
AN ACTIVE WEEKEND OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST, AS HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. TODAY, SEVERAL REGIONS HAVE BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
WHERE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR EMBEDDED IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING. FURTHER EAST, SIMILAR RISKS ARE PRESENT IN PARTS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST, WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND FLASH FLOODING. ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION; HOWEVER,
THE GREATEST THREAT, ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
PRODUCED SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN NEW JERSEY, HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE.
THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GULF COAST AS
TWO DISTINCT SURFACE FRONTS, ONE DRAPED ALONG THE DEEP SOUTH AND
THE OTHER MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT, AN ENHANCED
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL,
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. POTENT CELLS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INITIATE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CAUSE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI,
ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE
GULF. THE FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS WARM, MOIST GULF AIR CONTINUES
TO SURGE NORTHWARD BEHIND A WARM FRONT, LEADING TO FURTHER
INITIATION OF POTENT CELLS.
ELSEWHERE, A PERSISTENT AND STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
GENERATING RECORD WARMTH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100F - 110F IN ADDITION TO DEW
POINTS REACHING AND EXCEEDING 70F WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES OF 110F - 120F, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES FOR THE REGION. REPEATED AND LENGTHY EXPOSURE TO HEAT
OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN LEAD TO ADVERSE HEALTH RISKS, SO RESIDENTS
SHOULD DECREASE EXPOSURE BY LIMITING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND
DRINKING PLENTY OF FLUIDS. FURTHER WEST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE FRONT RANGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE GREAT PLAINS SYSTEM,
LEADING TO ANOMALOUSLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS/ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE, DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREATS
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE OVER THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MUCH LESS POTENT THAN LAST WEEK.
RUSSELL/KEBEDE
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