013
FXCA20 KWBC 201827
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2023
AT 15 UTC...TROPICAL STORM BRET CENTERED NEAR 11.9N 47.0W. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1008 HPA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35KT
WITH GUSTS TO 45KT. BRET WAS MOVING TO THE WEST OR AT 275 DEGREES
AND AT 18KT. FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE FOR UPDATES ON BRET.
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 20 JUN 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A QUASI-STATIONARY
MID-UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN...WHERE A MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND A
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE AST COAST OF THE USA/BAHAMAS INTO WESTERN
CUBA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO START
GRADUALLY EVOLVING TO SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER SYSTEMS BY LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. OVER MEXICO...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CONTINUES LIMITED...TO RESULT IN CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE CYCLE. EXPECT ISOLATED AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT IN
PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL/CHIHUAHUA/WESTERN
DURANGO...AS WELL AS ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR AND EJE
VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL. TO THE EAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND CUBA
THROUGH THE CYCLE. YET...THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING SOUTH OF BERMUDA BUT EXTENDING INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. ON TUESDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY
AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN CENTRAL CUBA...WHILE IN THE
BAHAMAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. ON THURSDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA AS THE
REGION LIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAVES IN THE TRADES AND
VENTILATION REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...IN THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH INT HE GULF OF
HONDURAS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
FROM WESTERN HONDURAS/WESTERN EL SALVADOR INTO CHIAPAS. ELSEWHERE
IN HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN
PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...AS A TROPICAL WAVES MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN WESTERN PANAMA AND
MOST OF CENTRAL/WESTERN COSTA RICA...AS WELL AS IN WESTERN
NICARAGUA/GULF OF FONSECA REGION. IN NORTHEAST NICARAGUA/EASTERN
HONDURAS EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM IN NORTHEAST NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS. IN CENTRAL
HONDURAS AND THE REST OF NICARAGUA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. IN EASTERN COSTA RICA EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
30-60MM...WHILE IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
MODERATE AMOUTNS ARE EXPECTED IN BELIZE WHERE ENHANCED TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
TROPICAL STORM BRET. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY...ACCORDING TO CURRENT NHC
GUIDANCE...EXPECT A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS BRET
CROSSES THE LESSER ANTILLES. ESPECT A PEAK IN PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN BARBADOS/SAINT VINCENT AND DOMINICA ON THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WHERE BRET SHOUD FAVOR 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-100MM. MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FEEDER
BAND-LIKE STRUCTURE.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN TO
CONTINUE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRET AND IMPROVING UPPER
VENTILATION...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
THE GUIANAS...MOST OF VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLOMBIA.
ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AS WELL AS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA.
IN THE GUIANAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ON THURSDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN EASTERN
VENEZUELA AND RORAIMA...WHILE IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN VENEZUELA
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND AMXIMA OF 20-45MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 21/00 21/12 22/00 22/12 23/00 23/12 24/00
TW 15N 35W 37W 39W 41W 43W 45W 47W 50W
TW 17N 78W 80W 83W 85W 87W 90W 93W 95W
EW 18N 96W 99W 103W 107W 110W 113W EXITS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 35W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY MONITORING THIS
PERTURBATION.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 78W AND SOUTH OF 17N. THIS WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PANAMA AND SOUTHEAST COSTA RICA ON
TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO
ITS NORTH TO DEVELOP HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA...WHILE IN WESTERN PANAMA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN COSTA
RICA...AND WESTERN NICARAGUA EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...WHILE IN WESTERN HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR AND THE REST OF GUATEMALA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN
EASTERN BELIZE EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 96W AND SOUTH OF 18N. THIS WILL
FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN OAXACA AND GUERRERO ON
TUESDAY...TO THEN EXIT CONTINENTAL AREAS.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page