201
FXCA20 KWBC 211832
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2023
AT 15 UTC...TROPICAL STORM BRET CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 52.5W. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 HPA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50KT
WITH GUSTS TO 60KT. BRET WAS MOVING TO THE WEST OR AT 280 DEGREES
AND AT 12KT. FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE FOR UPDATES ON BRET.
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 21 JUN 2023 AT 1830 UTC: THE MID-UPPER
RIDGE CENTERING IN CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MEXICO IS FORECAST TO START
MOVING...AND MEANDER NORTHWESTWARD BY FRIDAY...YIELDING TO A
GRADUAL CHANGE OF THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE REGION. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...A BROAD LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT A MOIST AIR MASS NORTHWARD INTO SINALOA BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS
IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF
SINALOA...TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. MORE ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO FROM CHIAPAS INTO OAXACA/GUERRERO...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
A DAILY BASIS PTODUCING GENERALLY MAXIMA OF 15-35MM...INCRE3ASING
TO 25-50MM IN CHIAPAS/OAXACA BY FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA/GULF OF HONDURAS IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY RETROGRADE. THIS WILL FOCUS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN USA...YIELDING TO
A DECREASING TREND IN THE BAHAMAS FROM THURSDAY AND ON.
INITIALLY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
INCREASING TO MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ON THURSDAY. ALSO ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN PORTIONS OF CUBA AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM IN HISPANIOLA. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE
BAHAMAS...CUBA...JAMAICA AND HAITI...WHILE IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
TROPICAL STORM BRET IS OF INTEREST ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PEAK ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-125MM BETWEEN BARBADOS...SAINT VINCENT...SAINT LUCIA AND
MARTINIQUE. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SAINT LUCIA
AND MARTINIQUE...WHERE MAXIMA NEARING 200MM IS POSSIBLE. TRAILING
MOISTURE WILL FAVOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WHEN EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. AN
INCREASE IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VI AS
WELL...WHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ON FRIDAY.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT A SEASONALLY ACTIVE PATTERN. THE
RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH...A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ENHANCED TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR ROUNDS OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. IN
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE INDIRECTLY
MODULATED BY BRET. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE
NET FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER INTO CANAIMA...WHERE
AMOUTNS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN EASTERN VENEZUELA AND
RORAIMA...WHILE MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO WESTERN VENEUZELA. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ALONG MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA
INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 22/00 22/12 23/00 23/12 24/00 24/12 25/00
TW 16N 39W 41W 43W 45W 47W 50W 52W 54W
TW 18N 82W 85W 88W 90W 93W 95W 98W 102W
EW 18N 103W 106W DISS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 39W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY MONITORING THIS
PERTURBATION.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 82W AND SOUTH OF 18N. IT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN NORTHEAST NICARAGUA/EAST HONDURAS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN COSTA RICA...WEST PANAMA AND
SOUTHWEST NICARAGUA. ON THURSDAY...TRAILING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN NICARAGUA...CENTRAL HONDURAS AND EASTERN EL
SALVADOR...WHILE IN AREAS WEST...INCLUDING GUATEMALA...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA INTO EASTERN OAXACA.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 103W AND SOUTH OF 19N. THIS
WAVE IS ILL DEFINED AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A BROAD CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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