237
FXUS01 KWBC 211903
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2023
VALID 00Z THU JUN 22 2023 - 00Z SAT JUN 24 2023
...HEAT WAVE TO PERSIST FROM EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS
MUCH OF TEXAS...
...WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS...
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION IS FORECAST NOT TO CHANGE
APPRECIABLY DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF SUMMER, REMAINING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED. THIS PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER STRONG
UPPER LOW PUSHING INLAND FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE SLOW MOVING EASTERN CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT A BROAD
REGION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, STRETCHING FROM
FLORIDA, NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, MID ATLANTIC INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH TOTALS 300 TO 600% OF NORMAL ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST, NORTH FLORIDA INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL POSE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, THE RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH WELCOMED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS EXIST.
WET WEATHER ALSO LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SIMILAR TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, LARGE SECTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE ALSO SEEN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH THE POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS ALSO POSING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA. IN
ADDITION TO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT, THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WILL ALSO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT, ALONG WITH A LESSER
THREAT FOR TORNADOES. ACROSS AREAS OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL U.S.
THAT HAVE HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA, EASTERN
TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
WHILE WET WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AFFECT LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S., THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT
WAVE WILL PERSIST FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO, EAST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THESE REGIONS, SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES,
ALONG WITH HIGH HEAT INDICES FROM VERY HUMID CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE
VERY HOT TEMPS FOR NORTHERN TEXAS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN THE
VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL SUPPORT INCREASED CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT REBUILDING ACROSS THIS AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS, TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE
UNRELENTING FROM SOUTH AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO, ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL TO SOUTH TEXAS. ACROSS THESE AREAS, NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES VALUES. AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FROM EASTERN ARIZONA, ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS,
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE
ENHANCED FIRE RISK, WITH THIS RISK LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN LITTLE EXPECTED CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE NATION.
ORAVEC
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page