564
FXCA20 KWBC 221902
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2023
AT 15 UTC...TROPICAL STORM BRET CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 57.7W. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 999 HPA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60KT
WITH GUSTS TO 75KT. BRET WAS MOVING TO THE WEST OR AT 280 DEGREES
AND AT 12KT. FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE FOR UPDATES ON BRET.
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 22 JUN 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A GRADUAL WET
TRANSITION IS UNRAVELING IN MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS RETROGRADING EAST OF THE RIDGE...TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...CENTRAL
MEXICO BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE VENTILATION IN
AREAS TO ITS SOUTHEAST...INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM DEVELOPING IN CHIAPAS/TABASCO AND OAXACA ON
FRIDAY. THIS INCREASES TO MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
REGION WHERE ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS
IS THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. IN THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL...EXPECT A PEAK ON FRIDAY...AS ENHANCED MOISTURE IN
COASTAL AREAS OF SINALOA FUELS AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...WHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.
ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHERE
TROPICAL STORM BRET IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. BRET IS
FORECAST TO FAVOR AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM
BETWEEN BARBADOS...SAINT LUCIA...SAINT VINCENT AND MARTINIQUE.
NOTE THAT ISOLATED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 250MM ARE POSSIBLE IN SAINT
LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE. BRET THEN IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
AS A TROPICAL STORM WITHOUT DIRECT EFFECTS IN CONTINENTAL REGIONS.
YET...IT WILL STIMULATE CONVECTION IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN EASTERN VENEZUELA ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA INTO NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM IN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHEAST COLOMBIA.
SEASONALLY WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL
ENHANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE. FURTHERMORE...A TROPICAL WAVE AND A
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL PROVIDE AN
ADEQUATE ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FORECAST CHARTS FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 23/00 23/12 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12 26/200
TW 19N 87W 91W 93W 95W 97W DISS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 87W AND SOUTH OF 19N. THE WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN WESTERN
HONDURAS...NORTHERN EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA ON THURSDAY.
TRAILING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN CENTRAL
HONDURAS...EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND NORTHWEST NICARAGUA. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM WESTERN
GUATEMALA INTO EASTERN OAXACA/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. ON SATURDAY
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM FROM CHIAPAS WEST INTO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ
AND EASTERN OAXACA.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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