693
FXCA20 KWBC 231236
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
836 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUN
23/12UTC: BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET IS PASSING
OVER 275 MILES SOUTH OF PR/USVI THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THE
STORM WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WITH EASTERN PR HAVING THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATION TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ALSO ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CINDY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TS CINDY WILL PASS OVER 250
AND 300 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ST JOHN AND FAJARDO RESPECTIVELY
ON MONDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF CINDY...THE MAIN
IMPACT OVER PR/USVI WOULD BE LIGHTER WINDS...AND A LINE OF
MOISTURE THAT COULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE COULD
MOVE INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT
WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL INTENSITY AND TRACK OF CINDY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP A GENERAL EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN WITH TS BRET AND CINDY SOMEWHAT
NEARBY...GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS WOULD BE EXPECTED
LOCALLY...THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...THEN WEAKER WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CINDY PASSES
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY..AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE JUST EAST OF PR/USVI BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER TROUGH COULD DEVELOP OVER HISPANIOLA BY THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH VALUES NEAR 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN INCREASING TO ALMOST 2 INCHES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...THIS
WOULD ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TS CINDY.
FOR TODAY...THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH ABOUT 0.75 INCHES ON EASTERN PR...UNDER A
HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN PR...AND UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE USVI. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST ON
SATURDAY...THEN RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE ON SUNDAY. THE FIVE-DAY
FORECAST TOTALS INDICATE MAXIMA OF ABOUT 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES IN
EASTERN AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. TOTALS OF AROUND 0.5 INCHES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE USVI. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page