153
FXCA20 KWBC 231641
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1241 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2023
AT 15 UTC...TROPICAL STORM BRET CENTERED NEAR 13.3N 64.7W. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 HPA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50KT
WITH GUSTS TO 60KT. BRET WAS MOVING TO THE WEST OR AT 270 DEGREES
AND AT 18KT. FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE FOR UPDATES ON BRET.
AT 15 UTC...TROPICAL STORM CINDY CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 48.0W.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1003 HPA...MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 45KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. CINDY WAS MOVING
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AND AT 14KT.
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 23 JUN 2023 AT 1700 UTC: A MID-UPPER RIDGE
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE THROUGH
THE CYCLE...THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
RETROGRADE AS WELL...RESULTING IN THE ARRIVAL OF DEEP-LAYER
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...ALSO STIMULATED BY A TROPICAL WAVE. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CHIAPAS/OAXACA AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA INTO CAMPECHE. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A PEAK
FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO EASTERN OAXACA/CENTRAL
VERACRUZ...WHERE EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. IN
SOUTHERN GUERRERO EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SUNDAY EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM TABASCO/WESTERN CHIAPAS
INTO SOUTHERN GUERRERO AND CENTRAL VERACRUZ. IN THE EJE VOLCANICO
TRANSVERSAL EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA GIVEN THE CURRENT
AVAILABILITY OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND
A WELL ESTABLISHED PANAMANIAN LOW. ON FRIDAY THIS WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL/WESTERN PANAMA AND EASTERN COSTA
RICA...WHILE IN EASTERN PANAMA AND NICARAGUA/WESTERN COSTA RICA
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON SATURDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.
ON SUNDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN THE DARIEN AND IN WESTERN
PANAMA/SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. IN AREAS NORTH...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE AS A DRIER AIR MASS ENTERS FROM THE CARIBBEAN. LATE ON
SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE TRADES RESULTING FROM THE REMNANTS OF
BRET IS FORECAST TO ENTER EASTERN NICARAGUA...TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...INTERESTS ARE FOCUSED ON TROPICAL STORMS BRET
AND CINDY. CINDY IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS...WITH LIMITED IMPACTS OVER LAND. BRET IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WESTWARD RAPIDLY ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
WHILE WEAKENING. DIRECT IMPACTS OF BRET IN LAND AREAS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. YET...TRAILING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR AN ADDICIONAL
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON FRIDAY. IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. ON SATURDAY...THE TROUCH ASSOCIATED WITH BRET
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN WESTERN VENEZUELA...WHILE IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON SATURDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00
TW 20N 94W 96W 99W 101W DISS
TW 16N 27W 32W 37W 42W 47W 51W 54W 57W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 94W AND SOUTH OF 20N. ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN WESTERN
GUATEMALA...CHIAPAS AND ESTERN OAXACA. ON SATURDAY IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN OAXACA/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN SOUTHERN GUERRERO.
A ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 27N AND TO THE SOUTH OF
16N. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER FRENCH GUIANA ON SUNDAY TO FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM IN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. NOTE THAT THIS WAVE WILL
ASSOCIATE WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NORTH OF 12N.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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