096
FXCA20 KWBC 261833
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 26 JUN 2023 AT 1830 UTC: THE MID-UPPER
RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER MEXICO DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS NOW CENTERS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE DECREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST
MEXICO...EXPECT THE INFLUENCE OF WAVES IN THE TRADES AND
ASSOCIATED MOIST PLUMES TO REACH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MEXICO...FAVORING LARGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN IN PREVIOUS WEEKS.
THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN AREA OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE EJE VOLCANICO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CAMPECHE. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MEXICO...YET
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN JALISCO/MICHOACAN AND AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
A DISORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH PATTERN EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
GREATER ANTILLES. MODELS ARE ORGANIZING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE VENTILATION TO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY ON TUESDAY (SEE BELOW FOR WAVE
POSITIONS AND ACCUMULATIONS). THIS WILL FAVOR MODERATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY...LESSER
ANTILLES ON TUESDAY...EXPANDING INTO PUERTO RICO AND THE VI BY
WEDNESDAY...AND HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY. A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER TRAILS THE WAVE...WHICH WILL FAVOR A NOTIEABLE DRYING ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...ACTIVITY WILL BE
LARGELY SENSITIVE TO THE ITCZ/NET AND WAVES IN THE TRADES. A BROAD
ITCZ LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF COSTA RICA IS FAVORING A NORTHWARD
UNDULATION OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...WHICH WILL FAVOR MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE PACIFIC BASIN OF COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA ON MONDAY. THIS DECREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN
EXPECT MAXIMA LIMITED TO 15-25MM IN COSTA RICA/WEST PANAMA AND
20-35MM IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. IN SOUTH AMERICA...A FEEDER
BAND-LIKE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS TROPICAL SYSTEM
BRET...IS FAVORING MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN PANAMA AND
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
30-60MM...DECREASING THEREAFTER. ON TUESDAY...THE LARGEST AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS AND THE NET IN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE IN
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE WESTERN ORINOQUIA...TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. FOR MORE DETAILS REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION AND
THE FORECAST CHARTS.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12
TW 15N 55W 58W 61W 64W 67W 69W 71W 73W 75W
TW 20N 83W 86W 88W 90W 92W 94W 97W 99W 101W
A ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 55W AND TO THE SOUTH OF
15N. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD CIRCULATION AND HIGH
LEVELS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. ANALYSES SUGGEST VALUES REACHING
60-65MM AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 70MM. ON MONDAY...IT WILL
FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND IN CENTRAL GUYANA. ON TUESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VENEZUELA. ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM IN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VI AND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE WESTERN
VENEZUELAN ORINOQUIA.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 83W AND TO THE SOUTH OF
20N. ON MONDAY...IT WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM
IN EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEAST NICARAGUA. IN THE GULF OF FONSECA
REGION AND EL SALVADOR...EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM
WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. IN THE PACIFIC BASIN OF COSTA
RICA...THE NORTHWARD UNDULATION OF THE ITCZ WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM FROM WESTERN EL SALVADOR INTO CHIAPAS...WHILE IN
BELIZE...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND NORTHERN CHIAPAS/TABASCO
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS INTO PORTIONS OF
OAXACA AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERACRUZ.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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