617
FXCA20 KWBC 281842
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2023
AT 15 UTC...HURRICANE ADRIAN CENTERED AT 15.2N 108.0W. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 989 HPA...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 65KT AND GUSTS UP TO 80KT. ADRIAN WAS MOVING TO THE WEST
OR 270 DEGREES AT 07KT.
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 28 JUN 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A DRY-TO WET
TRANSITION CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH ACTIVE
LOWS IN THE PACIFIC AND A NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MID-UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND INTO
LATITUDES NEAR 20N IN CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL IN WESTERN MEXICO. IN TERMS OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM
WESTERN GUATEMALA INTO OAXACA. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND CHIAPAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH...AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
IN COASTAL GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN/COLIMA. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM WESTERN GUERRERO IN JALISCO/SOUTHERN
ZACATECAS.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NICARAGUA HAS
REESTABLISHED. THIS MEANS DRIER CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS...WHILE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN COSTA RICA/PANAMA. STILL...THE
LACK OF WAVES IN THE TRADES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION LOCALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS MEANS AN INCREASE
IN ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA BY FRIDAY.
IN TEH CARIBBEAN...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS A ROBUST
TROPICAL WAVE (SEE BELOW)...FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH ORGANIZING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
NOTE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOPING IN PUERTO
RICO/VI/LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT A PEAK IN ACTIVITY IN
HISPANIOLA...WHERE POSITIVE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH
AND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-100MM. IN PUERTO RICO...TRAILING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
35-70MM MOSTLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE
FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST CUBA AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO ORGANIZE IN
RESPONSE TO TROPICAL WAVES AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN...EXPECT A
NORTHWARD UNDULATION OF THE ITCZ INTO EXTREME NROTHERN
VENEZUELA/LAKE MARACAIBO REGION.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12
TW 11N 42W 44W 48W 52W 55W 59W 62W 65W 69W
TW 19N 64W 67W 69W 71W 73W 75W 77W 80W 83W
TW 20N 94W 96W 98W 100W 102W 104W 106W 108W 110W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 42W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N. THE
WAVE WILL ARRIVE OVER FRENCH GUIANA/AMAPA ON THURSDAY...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/GUYANA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 64W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. ON
WEDNESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...VI AND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHEAST COLOMBIA. ON THURSDAY...IT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN HISPANIOLA...WHILE IN EAST-CENTRAL
COLOMBIA IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...AS WELL AS IN
HAITI...JAMAICA AND SOUTHEAST CUBA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 94W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN EAST
GUERRERO...PUEBLA...SOUTH VERACRUZ...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHIAPAS. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ALONG THE
COAST OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO/MICHOACAN. ELSWHERE IN
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN VAST AREAS
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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