913
FXCA20 KWBC 291818
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2023
AT 15 UTC...HURRICANE ADRIAN CENTERED AT 16.0N 110.3W. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 982 HPA...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 75 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 90 KT. ADRIAN WAS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 06 KT.
AT 15 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 98.8W.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1005 HPA...MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 KT AND GUSTS AT 40 KT. TWO-E WAS MOVING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT.
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 29 JUN 2023 AT 1830 UTC: UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND DEEP CONVECTION ARE PENETRATING
FURTHER INLAND THAN WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IN
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF MEXICO. AS MOISTURE ENTERS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO...EXPECT SEASONALLY WET CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL STEER THE MOIST PLUMES
NORTHEASTWARD...TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...ESPECIALLY IN DURANGO AND
ZACATECAS. REGARDING AMOUNTS WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO-E...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON ITS IMPACTS IN COASTAL AREAS
BETWEEN OAXACA AND JALISCO. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS DIURNAL
MAXIMAS OF 30-80MM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE COAST (SEE FORECAST CHARTS FOR DETAILS).
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED AREAS OF
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
AMOUNTS 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM WESTERN
HONDURAS/WESTERN EL SALVADOR INTO CHIAPAS. ON FRIDAY...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN COSTA RICA/WEST
PANAMA...AS A MOIST PLUME INTERACTS WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO WESTERN NICARAGUA.
ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MODERATE AMOUNTS IN COSTA RICA/WEST PANAMA
ONCE AGAIN...NOW STIMULATED BY AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE MOST REMARKABLE EVENT IS AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN A ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
NORTHWESTWARD FROM 70W INTO HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY...TO THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS/WEST CUBA BY SATURDAY. YET...AN UPPER DIVERGENT
PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
TROUGH...AS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN PRESSES IN.
IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...THE MOST CRITICAL IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. IN PUERTO RICO...ONGOING
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR AN ADDITIONAL 15-30MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
40-80MM THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. IN HISPANIOLA...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PRODUCE 20-40MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. ON FRIDAY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IS
EXPECTED IN HISPANIOLA...WHERE MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IS FORECAST. IN
SOUTHEAST CUBA AND JAMAICA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN
CUBA...CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA. NOTE THAT A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER TRAILS THE TROPICAL WAVE...TO FAVOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
EAST OF IT.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...ACTIVITY IS ORGANIZING WITH TROPICAL
WAVES AND THE NET. SEE BELOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 30/00 30/12 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12
TW 11N 50W 53W 57W 61W 63W 65W 68W 71W 74W
TW 19N 69W 71W 73W 75W 78W 81W 83W 86W 90W
A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 50W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N IS
EXPECTED TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME
ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND EAST VENEZUELA/WEST GUYANA. ON
SATURDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL
VENEZUELA/RORAIMA. ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS/CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES...EXPECT MORE CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 69W AND SOUTH OF 19N. ON
THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN HISPANIOLA...WHILE
TRAILING MOISTURE FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN PUERTO
RICO. IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN VENEZUELA...EAST OF THE
ANDES...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON FRIDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM IN NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA...AS WELL AS IN
HISPANIOLA. IN SOUTHEAST CUBA AND JAMAICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN COSTA
RICA...20-35MM IN EAST NICARAGUA/HONDURAS AND 15-20MM IN CUBA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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