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FXCA20 KWBC 301212
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
811 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUN
30/12UTC: THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT AFFECTED THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS MOVED WEST AND NOW IS OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA.
THE TJUA DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PR/USVI...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN...AS DRIER AIR AND
SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. SOME SAHARAN
DUST WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN VARYING CONCENTRATIONS...WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVING
THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL START
DECREASING TODAY...DECREASING TO THE NORMAL RANGE BY THIS EVENING
AND REMAINING NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE COULD CAUSE A SHARP INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON TUESDAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY INDUCED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE COMING ON
TUESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
DOMINATE THE GENERAL WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT AN UPPER
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER HISPANIOLA BY TUESDAY...AND MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN...WHICH COULD INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AS IT COMBINES WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
FOR TODAY...THE OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTH AND
EASTERN PR...AS WELL AS NORTHWESTERN PR. THE USVI WILL HAVE
ISOLATED AND BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH MINIMAL IF ANY RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. THIS PATTERN OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE
USVI...WITH SOME LOCALLY INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TO
NORTHWEST PR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY MODEST. THE EGDI
ALGORITHM DOES NOT INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...ONLY INDICATING THE RISK FOR VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PR WITH THE LOCALLY
INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE EGDI INDEX DOES
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED TROPICAL WAVE.
AS FAR AS RAINFALL TOTALS...AMOUNTS OF NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PR AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR THE USVI. THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR...JUST UNDER
2 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PR...AND NEAR 0.50 INCHES FOR THE USVI.
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE RAINIEST DAY IN THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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