207
FXCA20 KWBC 301823
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2023
AT 15 UTC...HURRICANE ADRIAN CENTERED AT 16.0N 110.3W. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 982 HPA...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 75 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 90 KT. ADRIAN WAS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 06 KT.
AT 15 UTC...HURRICANE BEATRIZ CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 102.3W. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 991 HPA...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 65 KT AND GUSTS AT 80 KT. BEATRIZ WAS MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT.
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 30 JUN 2023 AT 1700 UTC: WITH THE EFFECTS
OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...MEXICO IS SEEING
WET CONDITIONS ALONG THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEEP CONVECTION ARE MAKING THEIR
WAY INLAND DUE TO HURRICANE BEATRIZ ON FRIDAY...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY MICHOACAN/COLIMA AND SOUTHWEST JALISCO IN TERMS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
75-150MM. MODERATE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED IN COASTAL
PORTIONS OF GUERRERO...AND ALONG WEST MEXICO...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM FROM SINALOA/WEST DURANGO...ACROSS NAYARIT/ZACATECAS...
INTO JALISCO. THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FROM THE WEST PROVIDING VENTILATION FOR
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
SONORA/SINALOA/DURANGO...GRADUALLY EXTENING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO...WHERE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRESENT
OVER SEVERAL DAYS. AS WEAKENING BEATRIZ MOVES WEST...EXPECT A
GRADUAL DECREASE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WHERE STILL
EXPECT MOVERATE AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION ON A DAILY BASIS. IN
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A WEAK TUTT RETROGRADING WEST FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED...AS A TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONS BELOW FOR AMOUNTS.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...A ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WEST OVER EAST
CUBA AND JAMAICA ON FRIDAY. TRAILING MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE OVER
HIPSANIOLA WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE PROPOGATING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FOLLOWED BY
SAHARAN AIR LAYER...WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AND FAIR CONDITONS TO
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH MAXIMA BELOW
20MM FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PROPAGATION OF TROPICAL WAVES AND THE NET THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SEE BELOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12
TW 12N 33W 36W 39W 42W 46W 49W 54W 58W 63W
TW 11N 57W 60W 64W 68W 72W 76W 80W 83W 86W
TW 19N 73W 75W 78W 82W 85W 87W 90W 92W 94W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 33W AND SOUTH OF 12N. IT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE GUIANAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE EXPECT MAXIMAS
OF 15-25MM BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 57W AND SOUTH OF 11N. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO...NORTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA...WEST GUYANA...AND
INTO RORAIMA-BRASIL. EAST GUYANA IS FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
EAST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA...AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN WEST VENEZUELA.
EAST OF THE WAVE...A SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRAILS BEHING THE WAVE TO
FAVOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE BY
SUNDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35 IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...WHILE EAST PANAMA IS FORECAST FOR 15-25MM...AND WEST
COLOMBIA IS FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM WITH THE HELP OF
WESTERN ONSHORE FLOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 73W AND SOUTH OF 19N. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN EAST
CUBA/JAMAICA...20-40MM IN EAST PANAMA/WEST COLOMBIA...AND MAXIMA
OF 40-80MM WITH A RISK OF MCS IN NORTH COLOMBIA. ON SATURDAY...IT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN COSTA RICA...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
EAST NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AMOUNTS OF
15-25MM ARE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY..IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND NICARAGUA.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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