955
FXUS01 KWBC 030810
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON JUL 03 2023
VALID 12Z MON JUL 03 2023 - 12Z WED JUL 05 2023
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL TAPER OFF BY JULY 4TH BUT THEY
WILL LINGER OVER NEW ENGLAND...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT OVER CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME
LESS INTENSE AS HEAT INTENSIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...BRIEF HEAT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE ENDED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
RAPID COOL DOWN...
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TODAY. AREAS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN A BROAD SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY EARLY TODAY WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LESSER CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING DRIER AND
COOLER AIR TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. ON INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER. HOWEVER, AREAS
FROM NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND FURTHER
DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FIREWORKS FROM
NATURE LATER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WHERE THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY
WARM AND MOIST.
MEANWHILE, THE HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE LESS OPPRESSIVE
TODAY, BEFORE CONFINING SOUTHWARD EVEN MORE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
NEVERTHELESS, HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH 105-110 DEGREES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-90S, WHICH CAN BE DANGEROUS IF
SPENDING AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME OUTDOORS. ADDITIONALLY, HEAT
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGHOUT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST
COAST TODAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ARE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL VALLEY REGION OF CALIFORNIA AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE
CHALLENGED ON MONDAY, BEFORE THE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT POTENTIAL
SHIFTS UP THE WEST COAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
OREGON. HERE, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 90S AND LOW
100S ON TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A POTENT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPARK ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WARM, WITH HIGHS
INTO THE MID-90S ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SIGNAL THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE POTENT FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHERE HIGHS AS MUCH AS
20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.
KONG/SNELL
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