190
FXCA20 KWBC 031242
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
841 AM EDT MON JUL 03 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUL
03/12UTC: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP AN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH...WITH AXIS OVER EASTERN
HISPANIOLA WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THERE IS
ALSO A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...WITH DEEP MOISTURE THAT WILL REACH
PR/USVI LATE TONIGHT. THE OVERALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TODAY...BUT A SLOT OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON...ONLY FOR MOISTURE AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
RAPIDLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING A SHARP DECREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1.7 INCHES THIS
MORNING DOWN TO 1.5 THIS AFTERNOON...THEN UP TO OVER 2 INCHES BY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN AROUND TO 1.4 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AT AROUND 1.7 INCHES.
FOR TODAY...THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY..WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOR THAT REASON...THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR TODAY SHOWS OVER 1
INCH OF RAIN FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO...BUT THIS IS DUE TO THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT...NOT AS MUCH DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PR/USVI. EASTERN PR ONCE AGAIN IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF RAIN...WITH OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS MUCH DRIER. THE APPROACHING SAHARAN DUST
JUST BEHIND THE WAVE WILL DRY THINGS UP. FOR THAT REASON...ONLY
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST ACROSS A FEW SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. A TYPICAL PATTERN OF BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AND
THE USVI...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TO NORTHWEST PR
IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 3 INCHES ACROSS
EASTERN PR...JUST UNDER 1 INCH ACROSS WEST TO NORTHWESTERN
PR...AND NEAR 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FOR THE USVI. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE RAINIEST PERIOD IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
ALAMO/GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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