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FXCA20 KWBC 031542
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1142 AM EDT MON JUL 03 2023
..NEXT WEDNESDAY 5 JULY 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 03 JUL 2023 AT 1600 UTC: AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE USA INTO NORTHWEST
MEXICO/CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THIS TROUGH IS
INTERACTING WITH A POOL OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN WEST
MEXICO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEATRIZ LAST WEEK. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOIST
PLUME WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FROM
NAYARIT/SINALOA INTO DURANGO ON MONDAY...AS WELL AS DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN COAHUILA TO FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SINALOA AND
WESTERN DURANGO...WHILE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
CHIHUAHUA/ZACATECAS AND COAHUILA PRODUCES MORE CONSERVATIVE
AMOUNTS. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.
ALSO IN MEXICO AND IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...TROPICAL WAVES
WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN MODULATING CONVECTION (SEE BELOW).
ACCELERATED TRADES WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN EASTERN
HONDURAS/NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND IN BELIZE ON MONDAY...TO FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE WEST PF CENTRAL NICARAGUA INTO
CHIAPAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON TUESDAY...THE MOIST PLUME IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO OAXACA/EASTERN GUERRERO. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE MOST PLUME TO REACH JALISCO/MICHOACAN...TO
STIMULATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
IN CENTRAL MEXICO...FORECAST TO REACH 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TRAILS FROM THE EAST. BY WEDNESDAY
THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATING CONVECTION
IN AREAS EAST OF CAMPECHE...PETEN AND WESTERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR.
A TUTT LOW CENTERS NEAR 27N 66W ON MONDAY...AND EXTENDS AN AXIS
INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE CYCLE. A ROBUST TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY RAPIDLY...POSITIVE INTERACTION WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS IN PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NOTE THAT THE WAVE IS BEING TRAILED BY
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER...WHICH WILL FAVOR A RAPID DRYING ONCE THE
CONVECTION OF THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD. ON MONDAY...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...WHERE AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 30-60MM. IN EASTERN
PUERTO RICO/WESTERN VI AND THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM IN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CENTRAL CUBA AND THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
EASTERN AND MORELOSSOUTHERN PUERTO RICO WHILE IN
HISPANIOLA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS
AND ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS OF
DEEP CONVECTION WILL CLUSTER TO AREAS WEST OF 75W IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN IMPORTANT SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS FORECAST
TO REACH HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...SUSTAINING A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CLUSTERS IN
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AND IN GUYANA ON MONDAY...THE LATTER ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE (SEE BELOW). THIS WILL FAVOR MODERATE AMOUNTS
IN CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA ON MONDAY...AS WELL AS IN GUYANA
AND EASTERN VENEZUELA. FROM TUESDAY AND ON...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL ORGANIZE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. NOTE THAT THE
UPPER DIVERGENT TIER OF AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WILL PROVIDE VENTILATION AS THE WAVE MOVES
FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN VENEZUELA
ON TUESDAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN
GUIANAS. ON WEDNESDAY THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF PANAMA ON WEDNESDAY WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12
TW 17N 58W 61W 66W 70W 74W 78W 81W 84W 86W
TW 18N 79W 82W 85W 88W 91W 94W 97W 101W DISS
TW 25N 90W 92W 94W 96W 98W 99W 101W 103W 104W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 58W AND SOUTH OF 17N. ON
MONDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN GUYANA AND EASTERN VENEZUELA. ON TUESDAY...IT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN HISPANIOLA. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN EASTERN JAMAICA AND IN CUBA. IN WESTERN JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM WHILE IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 79W AND SOUTH OF 18N. ON MONDAY
IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. ON TUESDAY IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN BELIZE...WESTERN HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA. ON WEDNESDAY... IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN
CHIAPAS AND WESTERN GUATEMALA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 90W AND SOUTH OF 25N. ON MONDAY
IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN
GUATEMALA...CHIAPAS/TABASCO/CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN OAXACA. ON
TUESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN OAXACA...MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CHIAPAS. ON
WEDNESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
OAXACA/PUEBLA/GUERRERO AND MEXICO/MORELOS. IN NORTHERN
VERACRUZ/HIDALGO EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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