034
FXUS01 KWBC 041912
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 04 2023
VALID 00Z WED JUL 05 2023 - 00Z FRI JUL 07 2023
...WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TO RECORD-BREAKING HEAT EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST; CRITICAL FIRE RISK
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT...
...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...
ON THIS 4TH OF JULY, THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE THE
AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME NATURAL FIREWORKS,
THANKS TO A RATHER STRONG INTRUSION OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT MARKS THE BOUNDARY OF THE COOL AIR MASS. BY LATER
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN/STORMS WILL
PROGRESS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY, THE THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
LESSEN AS THEY SHIFT FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE COOL AIR
WILL BE FORCED TO LIFT ALONG THE TERRAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE, A DRASTIC COOL DOWN ENSURES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
RECORD COOL DAY-TIME TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WYOMING ON WEDNESDAY.
IN THE WEST, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., WITH SOME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OREGON
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO CLIMB TO THEIR HIGHEST
OF THE SEASON SO FAR, HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF WESTERN OREGON, INTERIOR COUNTIES OF FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, TEXAS FLORIDA AND COASTAL CAROLINAS. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR OVER 30 MILLION PEOPLE.
MEANWHILE, WITH ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL IN
EXCESS OF 110F, EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. DRY, HOT
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEASONAL TO ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND BECOME DIFFUSED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS ESPECIALLY OVER NEW ENGLAND, ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THESE
AREAS.
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