823
FXCA20 KWBC 051848
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EDT WED JUL 05 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 05 JUL 2023 AT 1845 UTC: A RATHER
DISORGANIZED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THIS IS VENTILATING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVES...GIVEN THAT DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPANDING FURTHER
NORTHWARD WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS WEEKS. ON
WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO. IN COMBINATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM FROM VERACRUZ/OAXACA WEST INTO MICHOACAN...AND MORE
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS WEST INTO JALISCO. NOTE MODERATE AMOUNTS ALSO
IN TAMAULIPAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ON
THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...TO ALLOW FOR THE INLAND MIGRATION OF THE
MOIST PLUME CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM EXTENDING WEST INTO
EASTERN COAHUILA. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT STILL MAXIMA OF 30-60MM
ACROSS THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL. SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL DEVELOP
IN NORTHERN VERACRUZ/SAN LUIS POTOSI. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A PEAK IN
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN MEXICO...WHERE ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ON A DAILY BASIS.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...A ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD VERY
RAPIDLY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION IN
CUBA/JAMAICA/CAYMAN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...TO THEN FOCUS IN
CENTRAL AMERICA. SINCE A SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRAILS BEHIND THIS
WAVE...EXPECT VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION ONCE THE WAVE PASSES. THE
NEXT WAVE IS FORECAST TO START STIMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATE ON FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...A DRY AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY CROSSING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE PACIFIC...WHICH IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION
PRIMARILY TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND AREAS WEST...AND TO SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ/NET. AN
INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED STARTING EARLY THURSDAY...AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR JAMAICA ARRIVES. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE EVOLUTION IS STILL
LOW...EXPECT MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...INCLUDING MAXIMA NEAR THE 30-60MM RANGE OR LOCALLY HIGHER
IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR/NW NICARAGUA ON THURSDAY...AND IN
COSTA RICA/EASTERN PANAMA ON FRIDAY.
A CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERS NEAR BARBADOS...BUT
EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS FORECAST TO HOLD
THROUGH THE CYCLE...PROVIDING THE AREAS OF STRONGEST VENTILATION
ALONG CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VENEZUELA INTO COLOMBIA. MOST ACTIVITY WILL
BE SENSITIVE TO WAVES IN THE TRADES AND THE NET. THE LARGEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN COLOMBIA...WHERE ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
FAVOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASES. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...LAKE MARACAIBO REGION AND THE CHOCO. EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. MODERATE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AS WELL...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
COLOMBIA. ANOTHER PEAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE EJE CAFETERO/CHOCO...WHERE
EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12
TW 12N 46W 49W 52W 54W 57W 59W 61W 63W 65W
TW 22N 75W 79W 82W 86W 89W 92W 94W 96W 99W
TW 26N 93W 97W 97W 101W 103W 105W 108W 112W 115W
TW 22N 101W 102W 104W 106W 107W 109W DISS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 46W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. IT
WILL ARRIVE TO THE GUIANAS BY THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN GUYANA AND WEST SURINAME. ON FRIDAY IT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN EAST VENEZUELA AND GUYANA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 75W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. ON
WEDNESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
AND 20-40MM IN EAST PANAMA. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH A RISK OF MCS FORMATION IN EL SALVADOR/WEST
HONDURAS. THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND
NICARAGUA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE PACIFIC BASIN OF COSTA RICA. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTH
CAMPECHE/TABASCO/NORTHERN CHIAPAS...NORTH GUATEMALA AND BELIZE.
WHILE IN NORTH CAMPECHE AND PORTIONS OF YUCATAN/QUINTANA ROO..AND
SOUTHERN CHIAPAS/SOUTH GUATEMALA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 93W AND SOUTH OF 26N. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
GUERRERO/OAXACA/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/PUEBLA. THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN TAMAULIPAS. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL MEXICO...MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN JALISCO
AND IN TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON. ON FRIDAY...NAYARIT/JALISCO/COLIMA
ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 101W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN PORTIONS OF
JALISCO/COLIMA/MICHOACAN. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN SINALOA ANDI N PORTIONS OF NAYARIT AND
JALISCO. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE OVER THE
OPEN WATER OF THE PACIFIC AND LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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