121
FXCA20 KWBC 061724
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
123 PM EDT THU JUL 06 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 06 JUL 2023 AT 1730 UTC: AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERS OVER SINALOA AND IS FORECAST TO MEANDER WEST OF CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE
VENTILATION FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MEXICO. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS IN TO SUSTAIN MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IN AREAS SOUTH OF 22N...PARTIALLY MODULATED BY WAVES
IN THE TRADES. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL/EJE VOLCANICO WHERE EXOECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. ON FRIDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MEXICO WHERE A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL COVNECTION TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
SINALOA/ZACATECAS/NORTHERN JALISCO...WHILE IN COLIMA/WESTERN
JALISCO EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL MEXICO
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE
CYCLE...IN ASSOCIATION TO ABUNDANT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND ENHANCED
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WHILE THE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
REMAIN ACCELERATED. NOTE THAT MODELS CONTINUE STRUGGLING
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PRECISE EVOLUTION...WHICH CONTINUES
LIMITING CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS. STILL...EXPECT A FEW AREAS OF
POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE CYCLE. ON THURSDAY...THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR MODERATE CONVECTION IN EL SALVADOR/GULF OF FONSECA
WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. ON
FRIDAY...A TROUGH IN THE TRADES MOVES IN FROM THE CARIBBEAN...TO
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN COSTA RICA/WEST PANAMA AND IN NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS. ONSHORE FLOW IN CHIAPAS/SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA AND A TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-100MM. ELSEWHERE BETWEEN CAMPECHE/TABASCO AND WESTERN NICARAGUA
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN
CHIAPAS TO REACH ONCE AGAIN POTENTIAL MAXIMA OF 50-10MM. ITCZ
CONVERGENCE IN THE PACIFIC BASINS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA
WIOLL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE FROM NICARAGUA
INTO BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. YET...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...EXPECT TRADUAL ENHANCEMENT (SEE
BELOW). BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE FAST PROPAGATING WAVE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS ARUBA/CURACAO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. YET...EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS TO LIMIT TO MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN HISPANIOLA.
YET...TRAILING MOISTURE AND THE INFLUENCE OF AN INDUCED TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ENHANCED RAINFALL IN PUERTO
RICO/VI AND IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHERE EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM ON SATURDAY.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...MOST ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE
NET...AND WILL BE ENHANCED BY VENTILATION IN THE SOUTHERN FRINGES
OF A CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE. LOCAL ENHANCEMENT IS
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA. NOTE THAT MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING IN RESOLVING THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WHICH IS ADDING
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION. IN TERMS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...ON THURSDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
THE CHOCO/DARIEN AND MORE CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE IN
COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA. ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN THE EJE CAFETERI/CHOCO...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN
CENTRAL/EASTERN COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NET. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM FROM THE EJE CAFETERO AND MAGDALENA MEDIO INTO EASTERN
COLOMBIA/WESTERN VENEZUELA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12
TW 12N 53W 56W 59W 62W 66W 69W 73W 77W 80W
TW 21N 83W 87W 89W 91W 94W 96W 99W 101W 104W
TW 26N 98W 101W 103W 105W 108W 111W DISS
TW 22N 104W 106W DISS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 53W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. IT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE GUIANAS ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY
IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN EASTERN VENEZUELA AND
GUYANA...AS WELL AS IN THE FRENCH LESSER ANTILLES. ON SATURDAY IT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE ORINOQUIA OF COLOMBIA AND
WEST/CENTRAL VENEZUELA...WHILE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IT WILL
FAVOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND MAXIMA LIMITING TO 15-20MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 83W AND SOUTH OF 21N. ON
THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN EL SALVADOR/GULF OF
FONSECA REGION WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. TRAILING MOISTURE IN
EASTERN HONDURAS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA EXPECT ALSO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 50-10MM IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN
CHIAPAS...WHILE IN SOUTHEAST MEXICO...THE REST OF GUATEMALA AND
BELIZE IT FAVORS MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON SATURDAY...IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN OAXACA AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL/VERACRUZ.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 98W AND SOUTH OF 26N. ON
THURSDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL/WESTERN VERACRUZ AND PORTIONS OF THE EJE VOLCANICO
CENTRAL. IN NORTHEAST MEXICO EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN JALISCO/NAYARIT AND
SOUTHERN ZACATECAS. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO LOSE DEFINITION WHILE
BECOMING EMBEDDED IN A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITAILIZED AT 104W BUT IT IS ILL DEFINED AND
FORECAST TO FINISH DISSIPATING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY
IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ALONG WESTERN MEXICO.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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