484
FXUS01 KWBC 100801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2023
VALID 12Z MON JUL 10 2023 - 12Z WED JUL 12 2023
...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING THROUGHOUT PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...
...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST...
...ANOMALOUSLY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHWEST...
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS THE
FOCUS FOR ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL AS SYNOPTIC FORCING AND A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS COMBINE TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT RIPE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE HEAVIEST OF
RAINFALL GENERALLY MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND, MUCH OF WHICH IS HEAVY, PERSISTENT RAINFALL.
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE RAINFALL IN REGIONS OF HIGH
TERRAIN. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. TO MAKE
MATTERS WORSE, THIS REGION IS SENSITIVE TO FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
RECENT INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THESE AFOREMENTIONED
REASONS, WPC HAS ISSUED A HIGH RISK (LEVEL 4/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO HEED ANY WARNINGS
AND NEVER DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY. IF DRIVING IS
NECESSARY, BE SURE TO CHECK CURRENT ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE
VENTURING OUT AS OVER 50% OF ALL FLASH FLOODING DEATHS OCCUR
WITHIN VEHICLES. WHERE TERRAIN IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE, MUD SLIDES
CANNOT BE RULED OUR ACROSS VERMONT AS WELL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
FINALLY EXIT MUCH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ONLY OFFER
A FEW REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES.
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONFIDENCE OF THE FORMATION OF A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) IS INCREASING. GIVEN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IN ADDITION TO
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A MORE POTENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION, AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN FOR
AN EXTENDED PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN EFFECT ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AND ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER, INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST, TEXAS, AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS OF 100F+ CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST, WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER
ARIZONA. THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH HUMIDITY MAY
ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO EXCEED 100F ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH 110F+ HEAT INDICES DEGREES THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE EARLY WEEK.
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF CITIZENS ARE UNABLE TO FIND
RELIEF IN AIR CONDITIONED BUILDINGS. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SIGNAL FOR
HEAT INCREASES, WITH WIDESPREAD 100F+ HEAT INDICES EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION, HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY THIS WEEK, WHERE
HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY MAY NEAR 110F.
SNELL/GENZ
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