944
FXCA20 KWBC 101930
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 10 JUL 2023 AT 1730 UTC: A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US EXTENDS OVER MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. TO
THE SOUTH...AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE FROM THE GULF
OF HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BY
EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ENHANCE ASCENT IN THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ALSO MODULATED BY PROPAGATING TROPICAL WAVES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ON MONDAY...PORTIONS OF NAYARIT/JALISCO/COLIMA SHOULD EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. WHILE ELSEWHERE IN
MEXICO...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-35MM. ON TUESDAY...PORTIONS OF
MICHOACAN/GUERRERO/PUEBLA/OAXACA...AS WELL AS SINALOA AND
NAYARIT...SHOULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...DECREASING OF 15-35MM
ON WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ON
MONDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WEST TO EXTEND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA BY EARLY THURSDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG EASTERLIES
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE IS
APPROACHING THE CARIBBEAN AND IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE RAPIDLY
WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST TRADES. NOTE A SAHARAN AIR LAYER AHEAD
AND BEHIND OF THIS WAVE. ON MONDAY...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA/EASTERN
CHIAPAS SHOULD EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...AS A
TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES. IN EAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHEAST COSTA
RICA...ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCEMENT WILL FAVOR
SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECT GENERALLY AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON TUESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHILE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
SHOULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA AND NORTHEAST COSTA RICA...SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY... THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE ISLANDS. SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND
NORTHEAST COSTA RICA SHOULD EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE EASTERLY TRADES.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...A NEUTRAL PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL WAVES AND TROUGHS
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE THE MAIN PRODUCERS OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON MONDAY...WEST VENEZUELA AND EAST
COLOMBIA SHOULD EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE
THE PACIFIC BASIN OF COLOMBIA SHOULD EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ON
TUESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATES OVER GUYANA AND EAST
VENEZUELA WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND
EAST-CENTRAL COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND WEST-CENTRAL COLOMBIA SHOULD EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER WEST
VENEZUELA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. WHILE IN NORTH
GUYANA...INTERACTIONS BETWEEN A TROUGH AND ITCZ WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12
TW 18N 51W 53W 56W 60W 64W 69W 72W 75W 78W
TW 18N 85W 88W 93W 97W 101W 104W 107W 110W 113W
TW 26N 103W 105W 108W DISS
ACOSTA/GALVEZ/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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