323
FXCA20 KWBC 111827
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 11 JUL 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A BROAD RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE BORDER OF SONORA AND ARIZONA AND EXTENDS OVER
MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY. TO THE EAST...A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS MOVING WEST INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING VENTILATION. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL BE MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE PASSING OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT CONDITIONS AND A DRIER AIR
MASS WILL FAVOR A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY.
ON TUESDAY...SINALOA AND NAYARIT SHOULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR
AND ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC CAN EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ARE FORECAST ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. WHILE PORTIONS OF SONORA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. BY THURSDAY...PORTIONS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO MAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM... WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL...GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE FORECAST.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
RETROGRADING INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA ON
TUESDAY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE EAST CARIBBEAN SEA AND RETROGRADE WEST...AIDING
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE STRONG EASTERLIES CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...PROMOTING ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ON
TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW IN PORTIONS OF BELIZE/GUATEMALA/HONDURAS
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN EAST COSTA RICA/SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL
AMERICA...PUERTO RICO/VI...AND WEST CUBA...EXPECT GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL STIMULATE
PRECIPITATION IN PUERTO RICO/VI. IN CENTRAL AMERICA...A TROUGH
PASSING OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
WHILE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO FAVOR
20-35MM IN BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. ON THURSDAY...EAST
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA SHOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FAVORING AN INCREASE IN MAXIMA TO 30-60MM.
NORTH NICARAGUA/EAST HONDURAS...AND EAST PANAMA..ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION AND
AMOUNTS ARE LOCATED BELOW. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS LOCATED BEHIND
THE WAVE AND A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
CARIBBEAN AFTER THE PASSING OF THE WAVE.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...A NEUTRAL PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TROUGHS AND TROPICAL WAVES
ARE MAKING THEIR WAY OVER THE AREA. ON TUESDAY...A TROUGH PASSING
OVER COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN NORTH-CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...WHILE SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND WEST ECUADOR ARE FORECAST
20-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH APPROACHES THE GUIANAS WHICH WILL
FAVOR...MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTH GUYANA...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE
GUIANAS COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER GUYANA AND EAST VENEZUELA...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. TROPICAL WAVES ARE FORECAST OVER THE AREA. SEE
AMOUNTS BELOW.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12
TW 11N 38W 40W 43W 46W 48W 51W 53W 56W 59W
TW 18N 60W 63W 66W 70W 74W 77W 79W 81W 83W
TW 18N 95W 98W 101W 103W 107W DISS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 38W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N. IT
WILL ARRIVE TO FRENCH GUIANA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHERE EXPECT
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 60W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 18N.
NOTE THAT A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ACCOMPANIED AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS
WAVE. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND VI ARE FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN EAST
PUERTO RICO AND 20-45MM IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WEST PUERTO
RICO...NORTH COLOMBIA...AND WEST VENEZUELA...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN HAITI AND PORTIONS OF WEST DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...IN ADDITION TO SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA. THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
AND TURKS AND CAICOS...EAST CUBA...JAMAICA...AND WEST
PANAMA/NORTHWEST COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-35MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 95W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM WEST OAXACA
TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MICHOACAN.ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-35MM OVER PORTIONS OF DURANGO/SINALOA/NAYARIT
INTO GUERRERO AND WESTERN OAXACA. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.
ACOSTA/GALVEZ/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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