639
FXCA20 KWBC 121801
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 12 JUL 2023 AT 1800 UTC: ON WEDNESDAY...A
RIDGE CENTERS OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AND EXTENDS OVER MOST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN EASTERLY WAVE
ARRIVES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL
SUR ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE PASSING OF THE EASTERLY
WAVE...INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT CONDITIONS AND A DRIER AIR
MASS WILL FAVOR A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION...NOTICEABLE
BY FRIDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...SONORA...MICHOACAN...GUERRERO...AND
OAXACA SHOULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND DEL SUR EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...PORTIONS OF
JALISCO...COLIMA...GUANAJUATO...AND MICHOACAN ARE FORECAST MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. OTHERWISE...AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR AND
OCCIDENTAL ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA IS
RETROGRADING INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST
CARIBBEAN SEA AND RETROGRADE WEST...AIDING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE STRONG EASTERLIES
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...PROMOTING ONSHORE FLOW
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...WHILE EASTERLY AND TROPICAL WAVES FAVOR ENHANCEMENT AS
WELL. ON WEDNESDAY...EAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHEAST COSTA RICA
SHOULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSING OVER
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE A ROBUST
TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM OVER EAST PUERTO
RICO...AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN WEST PUERTO RICO...AND EAST AND
SOUTH HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...EAST
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA SHOULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. PORTIONS OF NORTH WEST HISPANIOLA SHOULD EXPECT 25-50MM
WITH THE PASSING OF AN INDUCED TROUGH. PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA/EAST
HONDURAS...EAST PANAMA AND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS SHOULD EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION AND
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE LOCATED BELOW. ON
FRIDAY...EAST COSTA RICA AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA SHOULD EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. OF NOTE...A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS LOCATED BEHIND
THE WAVE AND A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
CARIBBEAN AFTER THE PASSING OF THE WAVE ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED IN CUBA WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...AND IN THE NORTH
BAHAMAS AND JAMAICA WITH MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...A NEUTRAL PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...THE BASE OF A TROUGH FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST OVER VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA...WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL AID WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TROUGHS AND TROPICAL
WAVES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY OVER THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GUIANAS WILL FAVOR...MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTH
GUYANA AND WEST SURINAME...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE GUIANAS AND
VENEZUELA COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER GUYANA AND EAST VENEZUELA...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
VENEZUELA WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH THE NET. ELSEWHERE IN NORTH
VENEZUELA AND EAST COLOMBIA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH CONTINUE WEST OVER WEST VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS
OF COLOMBIA...WHICH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 75-125MM WITH A RISK OF
MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA AND NORTH COLOMBIA.
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA.
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. TROPICAL WAVES
ARE FORECAST OVER THE AREA. SEE AMOUNTS BELOW.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12
TW 11N 42W 45W 48W 51W 53W 56W 59W 63W 66W
TW 23N 66W 70W 74W 78W 82W 85W 88W 91W 94W
EW 20W 85W 89W 92W 95W 98W 101W 103W 105W 107W
TW 20N 100W 103W 107W DISS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 42W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N. IT
WILL ARRIVE TO FRENCH GUIANA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHERE EXPECT
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN EAST VENEZUELA AND NORTH GUYANA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND GUYANA...AND SURINAME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 66W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N.
NOTE THAT A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ACCOMPANIED AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS
WAVE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN EAST
PUERTO RICO AND 20-45MM IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WEST PUERTO
RICO...NORTH COLOMBIA...AND WEST VENEZUELA. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN HAITI AND PORTIONS OF WEST
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IN ADDITION TO PORTIONS OF CHOCO AND
BUENAVENTURA IN COLOMBIA. THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
PANAMA AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN EAST CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE IS LOCATED OVER
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
NORTHWEST HONDURAS IS FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 85W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20W. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE EAST
HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM OVER
CHIAPAS AND OAXACA. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN PORTIONS OF JALISCO...COLIMA...GUANAJUATO...AND
MICHOACAN.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 100W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-35MM OVER PORTIONS OF
DURANGO/SINALOA/NAYARIT INTO GUERRERO AND WESTERN OAXACA. THE WAVE
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.
ACOSTA/GALVEZ/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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