518
FXCA20 KWBC 131832
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 13 JUL 2023 AT 1830 UTC: ON THURSDAY...A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN USA EXTENDS OVER MOST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE REST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY
SATURDAY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASINGLY UPPER
CONVERGENT CONDITIONS AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
AREA...FAVORING A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE PASSING OF AN EASTERLY WAVE AND AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE BY SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT
MEXICO. UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SONORA AND
SINALOA IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ON THURSDAY...MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IS FORECAST FOR
SINALOA..SONORA...GUERRERO AND OAXACA. WHILE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
FRIDAY...SONORA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE SINALOA IS
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...PORTIONS OF
SONORA...GUERRERO...OAXACA...CHIAPAS...AND VERACRUZ CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA IS RETROGRADING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CARIBBEAN SEA AND RETROGRADE
WEST...AIDING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE STRONG EASTERLIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...PROMOTING ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER LARGE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE EASTERLY AND TROPICAL WAVES
FAVOR ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. AFTER THE PASSING OF A TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ON FRIDAY...A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
LOCATED BEHIND THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. ON THURSDAY...AN INDUCED TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND HAITI...WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
NORTH HISPANIOLA...AND 20-35MM IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. EAST
NICARAGUA AND PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA ARE FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF
30-60MM...WHILE THE REST OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA
ARE FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
AND NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
SATURDAY...EAST NICARAGUA IS FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 35-70MM...WHILE
CENTRAL NICARAGUA AND NORTHEAST HONDURAS ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...A NEUTRAL PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY...AND A DISORGANIZED UPPER RIDGE OVER BRASIL IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWARD...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE GUIANAS AND
NORTHERN BRASIL BY SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY...THE BASE OF A TROUGH
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST OVER
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL AID WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TROUGHS
AND TROPICAL WAVES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY OVER THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY...A TROUGH OVER EAST VENEZUELA WILL FAVOR 20-35MM IN
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE VENEZUELA...NORTH GUYANA...AND
RORAIMA-BRASIL. SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST
AMAZONAS-BRASIL IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...EXPECT GENERALIZED AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM. ON
FRIDAY...INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A TROUGH PASSING OVER
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 75-125MM WITH A RISK
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND EXTREME EAST PORTIONS
OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE IN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM. NORTHEAST VENEZUELA...SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN
ECUADOR AND PERU ARE FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE PACIFIC
BASIN OF COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE GUIANAS ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...ANTIOQUIA AND PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC BASIN OF COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...WHILE CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WEST VENEZUELA...AND NORTH
GUYANA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. TROPICAL WAVES ARE FORECAST
OVER THE AREA. SEE AMOUNTS BELOW.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12
TW 13N 48W 52W 55W 58W 61W 64W 68W 72W 76W
TW 22N 75W 78W 82W 86W 88W 91W 94W 98W 101W
EW 19W 93W 95W 98W 101W 103W 105W 108W 111W DISS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 48W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N. IT
WILL ARRIVE TO FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME BY THURSDAY
EVENING...WHERE EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON FRIDAY...THE
WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN EXTREME NORTHEAST VENEZUELA
AND NORTH GUYANA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
RORAIMA-BRASIL...GUYANA...AND SURINAME. ON SATURDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
VENEZUELA...WHILE SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...NORTH
AMAZONAS-BRAZIL...SUCRE AND NUEVA ESPARTA IN
VENEZUELA...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ARE FORECAST MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 75W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N.
NOTE THAT A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ACCOMPANIED AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS
WAVE. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
PANAMA AND THE PACIFIC BASIN OF COLOMBIA. EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA
ARE FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE IS LOCATED
OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. NORTHWEST COSTA RICA IS FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WHILE IN WEST HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON SATURDAY... BELIZE...PORTIONS OF
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 93W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 19W. ON
THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM OVER CHIAPAS AND
OAXACA. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
PORTIONS OF JALISCO...COLIMA...GUANAJUATO...AND MICHOACAN. ON
SATURDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN
SINALOA...AND 15-25MM IN PORTIONS OF
JALISCO...NAYARIT...COLIMA...AND MICHOACA.
ACOSTA/GALVEZ/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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