317
FXCA20 KWBC 141816
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 14 JUL 2023 AT 1830 UTC: AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN USA EXTENDS OVER MOST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT
CONDITIONS AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
AREA...FAVORING A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE PASSING OF AN EASTERLY WAVE AND TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MEXICO. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FROM
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY...SONORA AND SINALOA ARE FORECAST GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-35MM. ON SATURDAY...PORTIONS OF
GUERRERO...OAXACA...CHIAPAS...AND VERACRUZ CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON SUNDAY...PORTIONS OF JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN
ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
CENTERED AROUND 15N AND 78W...AND ITS BASE INTO PANAMA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE TROUGH IS RETROGRADING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA
OVER THE WEEKEND...TO AID WITH ENHANCING PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...THE STRONG EASTERLIES CONTINUE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...PROMOTING ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE EASTERLY AND
TROPICAL WAVES FAVOR ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
LOCATED BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...AND IS
EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DECREASE OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND NORTHWEST
CUBA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-35MM...WHILE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA
COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. OROGRAPHIC LIFTING FROM THE IMPACT OF
THE STRONG EASTERLIES WILL FAVOR 20-35MM IN BELIZE AND GUATEMALA.
ON SATURDAY...EAST NICARAGUA IS FORECAST AMOUNTS OF
40-80MM...WHILE CENTRAL NICARAGUA AND NORTHEAST HONDURAS ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. COSTA RICA...PANAMA...HISPANIOLA...AND
NORTHERN BAHAMAS ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
SUNDAY...EASTERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. SOUTHERN BELIZE AND GUATEMALA COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...AND HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM. A
LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FOLLOWED BY A ROBUST SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
FORECAST OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY AND WILL FAVOR AMOUNTS
OF 15-25MM IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE BELOW FOR PRECIPITATION DUE
TO TROPICAL WAVES.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...A DISORGANIZED UPPER RIDGE OVER BRASIL IS
MAKING ITS WAY NORTH...AND IS FORECAST TO BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE GUIANAS AND NORTHERN BRASIL BY SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY...THE
BASE OF A TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
FORECAST OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
AID WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...TROUGHS AND TROPICAL WAVES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY OVER THE
AREA. ON FRIDAY...INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A TROUGH PASSING
OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 75-125MM WITH A
RISK OF MCS DEVELOPMENT IN WEST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA. EXTREME WEST VENEZUELA AND WEST-CENTRAL
COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. CENTRAL
VENEZUELA...SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN ECUADOR AND PERU ARE
FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE GUYANA
COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE THE GUIANAS ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...NORTHWEST COLOMBIA IS FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WEST VENEZUELA...PORTIONS OF
ECUADOR AND PERU...AND NORTH GUYANA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON SUNDAY...CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE NORTH PORTIONS OF
THE GUIANAS...ECUADOR...AND NORTHWEST BRASIL ARE FORECAST FOR
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. TROPICAL WAVES ARE FORECAST OVER
THE AREA. SEE AMOUNTS BELOW.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12
TW 15N 56W 58W 61W 64W 68W 72W 76W 80W 82W
TW 22N 82W 85W 88W 91W 94W 97W 101W 103W 105W
EW 22N 102W 104W 106W 108W 111W 113W DISS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 56W AND SOUTH OF 53N. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTHEAST
VENEZUELA AND NORTH GUYANA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
RORAIMA-BRASIL...SOUTH GUYANA...AND SURINAME. ON SATURDAY...THE
WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
VENEZUELA...WHILE SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND NORTH AMAZONAS-BRAZIL ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ARE FORECAST MAXIMA
OF 15-25M. ON SUNDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
NORTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
IN SOUTH COLOMBIA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN HAITI.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 82W AND SOUTH OF 22N. NOTE THAT
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ACCOMPANIED AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS WAVE. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN COASTAL PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA...MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN EAST HONDURAS...CENTRAL
NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ELSEWHERE IN
HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. ON SATURDAY... BELIZE...PORTIONS OF
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
GUATEMALA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PORTIONS OF WEST
CAMPECHE...TABASCO...CHIAPAS...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. ON
SUNDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FOR PORTIONS OF
VERACRUZ...PUEBLA...AND NORTH OAXACA...WHILE FAVORING MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN SOUTHERN OAXACA AND GUERRERO.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 102W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22W.
ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN PORTIONS OF
JALISCO...COLIMA...GUANAJUATO...AND MICHOACAN. ON SATURDAY...IT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN SINALOA...NAYARIT...AND
JALISCO. BY EARLY SUNDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
ACOSTA/GALVEZ/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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