545
FXUS01 KWBC 142012
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
411 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2023
VALID 00Z SAT JUL 15 2023 - 00Z MON JUL 17 2023
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM CALIFORNIA/GREAT
BASIN TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY...
A WEAKENING FRONT NEAR THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE EAST COAST.
MOREOVER, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF KANSAS, FAR
WESTERN MISSOURI, NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
FURTHER, ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST,
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THREE AREAS, THE NORTHEAST, CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL
STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON SUNDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL INCREASES OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREATE HEAVY RAIN.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. FURTHERMORE,
MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
IN CONTRAST, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES
SLIGHTLY. AS THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES, THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
MODERATE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY,
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC FROM SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, AND A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND HAIL.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THE SAME OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE, ON SUNDAY, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, AND A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND HAIL.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN
EASTWARD TO TEXAS AND LOUISIANA, BRINGING WITH THE HIGH, HOT HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND TEMPERATURES NOT COOLING OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT,
WHICH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES OVER CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, ARIZONA, SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO,
EASTERN OKLAHOMA, MOST OF TEXAS, ARKANSAS, LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI,
AND ALABAMA. IN ADDITION, THE RIDGE WILL BRING AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY
PEAK IN INTENSITY ON SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. DANGEROUS HEAT
MAY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. ALL-TIME HEAT
RECORDS COULD BE APPROACHED OR REACHED AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THE RECORDS HEAT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ON SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, MOJAVE DESERT, AND GREAT
BASIN REGIONS. PHOENIX IS ALSO LIKELY TO REGISTER ITS HOTTEST WEEK
ON RECORD BY 7-DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. TAKE THE HEAT SERIOUSLY
AND AVOID TIME OUTDOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD
POSE A HEALTH RISK, AND BE POTENTIALLY DEADLY, TO ANYONE WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. HEAT IS THE LEADING
WEATHER-RELATED KILLER IN THE U.S.
LASTLY, WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL REDUCE AIR QUALITY
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY, PROMPTING AIR QUALITY WARNINGS OVER THE AREA.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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