795
FXUS01 KWBC 150751
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2023
VALID 12Z SAT JUL 15 2023 - 12Z MON JUL 17 2023
...DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WEST THIS
WEEKEND; GROWING HOTTER IN THE SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TO TRANSPIRE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48...
...CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AIR QUALITY ALERTS
IN PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND OHIO VALLEY...
THE WEST WILL BE MIRED IN THE MIDST OF A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE
THANKS TO A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED OVER HEAD FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ROUTINELY RANGE BETWEEN
10-20F ABOVE NORMAL, EQUATING TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
THE CENTURY MARK IN THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST, BETWEEN 100-110F IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND 115-120F+ IN THE HIGH DESERT
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND ARIZONA. THESE VALUES
WILL ALSO LIKELY AMOUNT TO NUMEROUS DAYTIME RECORD HIGHS BEING
BROKEN THIS WEEKEND IN THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. WHILE THE
CORE OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IS SETTING UP IN THE SOUTHWEST,
SULTRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S WITH OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO RANGE FREQUENTLY
BETWEEN 105-110F EACH AFTERNOON. ALL AFFECTED REGIONS WILL
STRUGGLE TO COOL OFF EACH NIGHT, MAKING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RELIEF EVEN WELL AFTER THE SUN SETS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENINGS.
THERE ARE NO SHORTAGE OF EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES THAT STRETCH FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE GULF COAST. FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE IMPACTS OF THIS EAT WAVE, PLEASE VISIT
HEAT.GOV.
THE HEAT WAVE IN THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WEST QUITE DRY THIS
WEEKEND, BUT IT IS QUITE THE OPPOSITE EAST OF THE ROCKIES WHERE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. A PAIR OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST WILL BE
THE CATALYSTS FOR ROUNDS OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS. TODAY, WPC'S
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS THREE SLIGHT RISKS AREAS:
ONE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST. THE MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1/4) SPANS
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST, PLACING A LARGE
PORTION OF THE U.S. POPULATION AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ITS OWN SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE, ALONG WITH A MARGINAL RISK FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BY
SUNDAY, THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT BECOMES A BIGGER CONCERN AS
WPC HAS HOISTED A MODERATE RISK (THREAT LEVEL 3/4) FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE
MIDWEST AND IN THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST, THESE REGIONS ARE
SET TO CONTEND WITH POOR AIR QUALITY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE
POOR AIR QUALITY IS DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADA
BEING DIRECTED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.. CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE WILL REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY.
LASTLY, THERE IS AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER IN PARTS OF
THE THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF NORTHERN OR AND CENTRAL WA ON
SUNDAY.
MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page