967
FXUS01 KWBC 170755
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2023
VALID 12Z MON JUL 17 2023 - 12Z WED JUL 19 2023
...LENGTHY HEAT WAVE TO CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S., AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
...SEVERE STORMS AND BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR FROM THE
NATION'S HEARTLAND TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY...
...CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE RESPONSIBLE FOR AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND
NORTHEAST...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAT
WAVE IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY OVER THE NORTHWEST, BUT
EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND GULF COAST STATES THROUGH
MID-WEEK. RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
MID-WEEK IN THE FOUR CORNERS STATES, FROM TEXAS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTH FLORIDA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ROUTINELY RESIDE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DEEP IN THE HEART OF TEXAS. FARTHER EAST, THE GULF COAST AND
MID-SOUTH CAN EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S THAT
COINCIDE WITH OPPRESSIVE DEW POINTS, RESULTING IN SWELTERING HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 105-115F. IN ADDITION, DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN REMARKABLY WARM, BREAKING RECORD WARM DAILY MINIMUMS IN
MANY CASES. THIS MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FOR AREAS
DESPERATELY NEEDING TO COOL OFF FROM THE SIZZLING DAYTIME HIGHS.
THERE REMAIN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES IN THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, WESTERN GULF COAST,
AND EVEN PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PLAYING A ROLE IN THE PROLONGED STRETCH
OF SULTRY HEAT. PLEASE VISIT HEAT.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
IMPACTS FROM THE HEAT WAVE. ELSEWHERE, THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S FOR HIGHS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOCUSING ON AREAS WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENGULF PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY,
NORTHEAST, AND FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY. TODAY, STRONG-TO-SEVERE
STORMS WILL IGNITE ALONG A LENGTHY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SPANS
FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) ISSUED A PAIR OF SLIGHT RISKS (THREAT
LEVEL 2/5) IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE
MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1/5) STRETCHES FROM THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WHEN IT COMES TO POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A HANDFUL OF
MARGINAL RISKS (THREAT LEVEL 1/4) IN THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY,
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA, SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA, AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA, AS THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. BY TUESDAY, THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BECOME HEIGHTENED OVER THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
RATES AND OVERLY SATURATED SOILS HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT RISK
(THREAT LEVEL 2/4) THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NYC METRO ON NORTH INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH WPC AND SPC HAVE SLIGHT RISKS FOR PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY WHERE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND FLASH
FLOODING. WPC'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK ALSO SHOWS A MARGINAL
RISK IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AGAIN IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL REMAIN IN THE PICTURE THROUGH TUESDAY
AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT THAT ORIGINATE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES CONTINUES TO DIRECT MORE SMOKE INTO THE LOWER 48. THERE
ARE AIR QUALITY ALERTS ISSUED FOR AREAS THE INCLUDE THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND NORTH
CAROLINA, AND INTO THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF
SMOKE WILL RESULT IN UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS.
SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER PARTS OF THE HEARTLAND
ON TUESDAY, BUT MAY STILL CAUSE POOR AIR QUALITY ALONG THE EAST
COAST.
MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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