547
FXCA20 KWBC 241853
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 24 JUL 2023 AT 1850 UTC: A TROPOSPHERIC
KELVIN WAVE IS CROSSING THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK. THE WAVE LIES
EMBEDDED IN AN GENERAL UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN...THUS...ITS
EFFECTS ON THE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE TOO
PROMINENT.
WEST IN THE DOMAIN...A MOIST AIR MASS IS PROPAGATING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. AS
THE MOIST PLUME MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO...EXPECT MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N. ON MONDAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS INTO SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ...AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN WESTERN
JALISCO/NAYARIT/SOUTHERN SINALOA. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST MEXICO EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NAYARIT/SOUTHERN SINALOA WITH A RISK FOR MCS
FORMATION. ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MEXICO AND THE EJE VOLCANICO
TRANSVERSAL EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN JALISCO/SOUTHERN ZACATECAS
AND SOUTHERN SINALOA. IN NORTHERN SINALOA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM.
A SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS APPROACHING
THE ARC OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY. NHC HAS DECREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING...BUT IT WILL STILL PRODUCE
MODERATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN. ON MONDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND TRINIDAD. ON
TUESDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL
VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM EXPECT
SIMILAR AMOUNTS BETWEEN MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE AS A MOIST PLUME
MOVES THROUGH. IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ALSO ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN PUERTO RICO AND IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ACCOMPANIED BY ACCELERATED TRADES FROM
THE EAST...ESPECIALLY FOR PUERTO RICO. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
IN PUERTO RICO.
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS RECOVERING FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND
ITS EFFECTS IN LIMITING PRECIPITATION. ON MONDAY MORNING...A TUTT
LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF JAMAICA AND IS RETROGRADING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE TUTT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING THE
TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY TUESDAY...WHEN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WEST
CUBA. ALSO ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN JAMAICA AND
15MM IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEAST CUBA. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-30MM IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN WESTERN CUBA.
SEASONALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND ACCELERATED
TRADES. THIS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT MAXIMA UNDER 25MM AND LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. WETTER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE ITCZ. ACCELERATED TRADES WILL GENERALLY FAVOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASINS OF COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA AND PANAMA. YET...MAXIMA WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO
20-35MM ON MONDAY...15-25MM ON TUESDAY AND 20-40MM ON WEDNESDAY.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY FLARE UP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ/NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH. WESTERLIES IN
THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE
STIMULATING PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN COLOMBIA. ON MONDAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN WESTERN COLOMBIA/DARIEN AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
FAR EASTERN COLOMBIA AND SOUTH AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON TUESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IN
COLOMBIA...ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
VENTILATION IN THE SOUTHERHN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WILL TRIGGER STRONG AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION
FROM THE SANTANDERES INTO ANTIOQUIA AND SUCRE IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. A DECREASE IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12 28/00 28/12
TW 22N 57W 58W 61W 64W 67W 70W 73W 76W 79W
TW 22N 96W 98W 101W 104W 106W 109W 111W 114W 117W
TW 25N 107W 109W 112W 115W EXITS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 57W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. ON
MONDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVORMAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE GUIANAS. ON
TUESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES...TRINIDAD...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15-35MM IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND ELSHWERE IN VENEZUELA. PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS ARE FORECAT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERN
DOMINCAN REPUBLIC...AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND EAST COLOMBIA ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 107W AND SOUTH OF 25N. ON
MONDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-560MM IN VERACRUZ AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUEBLA/HIDALGO/SAN LUIS POTOSI. WEST
OAXACA/GUERRERO...AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN EJE VOLANICO
TRANSVERSAL ARE FORECAST MAXIMA AOF 20-40MM. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MACIMA OD 30-60MM IN WESTERN NAYARIT AND SOUTHERN
SINALOA...WHILE JALISCO...COLIMA...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EJE
VOLANICAO TRANSVERSAL ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
PORTIONS OF NAYARIT...DURANGO...JALISCO...AND SINALOA. NORTHERN
SINALOA AND SOUTHERN SONORA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
GALVEZ/ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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