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FXCA20 KWBC 251114
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
713 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUL
25/12UTC: ON TUESDAY MORNING...A TROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS LIMITING THE
NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE MOIST PLUME AND ASSOCIATED STRONGEST
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...EXPECT A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN ON THURSDAY.
IN TERMS OF FORECAST AMOUNTS DURING THE WETTEST DAYS...ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND IN THE STREAMER GENERATED BY EL YUNQUE EXTENDING HEAVY
CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-1.5 INCHES.
AFTERNOON FLARE UPS IN THE WESTERN CORDILLERA ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MAXIMA OF 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE CABO ROJO AND MAYAGUEZ
AREAS. ELSEWHERE IN THE ISLAND EXPECT AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.3 INCH
RANGE. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE TRAILING BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WILL
FAVOR ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES IN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION PRODUCES MAXIMA OF 0.5-1 INCH IN
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE STREAMER FROM EL YUNQUE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 0.25-0.5 INCHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SAN JUAN METRO. EXPECT A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER.
ONCE THE WAVE PASSES...EXPECT LOCALLY INDUCED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...WHILE LIGHT
TRADE WIND SHOWERS AFFECT EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.5 INCHES ON THURSDAY...INCREASING TO 0.4-0.6
INCHES ON FRIDAY. IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA UNDER 0.15 INCHES ON THURSDAY AND 0.2-0.35 INCHES ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH IN THE TRADES IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...TO PROVIDE TRANSIENT ENHANCEMENT OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MAXIMA IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO
0.4-0.6 INCHES...WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST PR
PRODUCES MAXIMA OF 0.5-0.8 INCHES.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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